Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner get new incentive in battle for world No. 1

Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have been handed extra motivation to finish the year as world No. 1 in the ATP Rankings, following a new rule change that will affect seedings at the 2026 Australian Open.

Change to Australian Open seeding timeline

Whichever of the two ends 2025 at the top of the standings will automatically become the No. 1 seed for the first Grand Slam of next year, set to take place at Melbourne Park from January 12 to February 1, 2026.

Previously, Australian Open seedings were determined just a week before the tournament began, prompting players to enter lower-tier events in December or early January in a final push to improve their rankings.

Alcaraz and Sinner are already guaranteed to be the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in Melbourne, meaning they will be placed on opposite sides of the draw. That setup ensures both are likely to face similarly ranked opponents if they advance deep into the tournament.

Does being No. 1 seed matter in tennis Grand Slams?

Statistics show that top seeds have performed only marginally better than No. 2 seeds in Grand Slams in recent years. Of the 23 majors played in the 2020s, the No. 1 seed has won eight times, while the second seed has claimed seven titles.

History suggests Sinner may feel more pressure entering a tournament as the top seed. Of the Italian’s four Grand Slam victories, three have come when he was ranked No. 1.

Alcaraz, meanwhile, has been the top seed for just one of his six major wins, at Wimbledon in 2023. The Spaniard has lifted two trophies as the No. 2 seed and three as the No. 3.

Sinner back on top after Paris win

Sinner recently reclaimed the world No. 1 ranking after winning the ATP Masters 1000 title in Paris, ending Alcaraz’s seven-week run at the summit.

The Italian’s 1,000 ranking points from Paris boosted his total to 11,500, while Alcaraz slipped to 11,250 after dropping 90 points. But the fight for the year-end No. 1 is far from over.

ATP Finals to decide who finishes No. 1

With the ATP Finals approaching, Alcaraz still has a clear path to reclaim the top spot. If the Spaniard wins three matches in Turin, he will secure the No. 1 ranking heading into next season.

Alternatively, one group-stage win, if it leads to the semifinals, followed by a victory there could also be enough. If Alcaraz falls short, Sinner would need to win the Finals outright to clinch year-end No. 1 honors.

Whoever finishes the season at the top will receive the year-end No. 1 trophy, but the real question is how much that will matter once the Australian Open begins.

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