Kentucky Derby 2024: How often does the favorite horse win the race?

The year was 1875 when Colonel Meriwether Lewis Clark Jr., inspired by the prestigious Epsom Derby in England, decided to create an American counterpart. He envisioned a race that would blend athleticism, elegance, and Southern charm. And so, The Kentucky Derby was born.

Often referred to as “The Run for the Roses,” is a prestigious horse racing event held annually at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Each year, top thoroughbred horses compete in a 1 1/4-mile race, vying for the coveted garland of roses awarded to the winner. The Derby is not only a celebration of athleticism but also a cultural phenomenon that brings together fashion, mint juleps, and the excitement of witnessing history unfold on the racetrack

But, how Often Does the Favorite Win the Kentucky Derby?

Out of the 141 Kentucky Derbys held so far, the favorite horse has won 49 times. This means that approximately one-third of the races have been claimed by the favorite1. While this percentage might seem modest, it’s essential to consider the competitive nature of the race and the unpredictability of thoroughbred horse racing.

From 2013 through 2018, the favorite horse won the Kentucky Derby every single time. This remarkable streak showcased the dominance of the favorites during that period. However, the last five races have seen a shift, with no favorites emerging as winners. This trend highlights the excitement and uncertainty that surrounds the Derby each year.

Despite the historical data, betting on favorites in the Kentucky Derby remains a +EV (expected value) play. Favorites often outperform their odds year over year. While the win rate may not be exceptionally high, the excitement and potential for an upset make the Derby a thrilling event for fans and bettors alike.