The tiny detail that could decide the F1 title in Abu Dhabi

The Abu Dhabi GP won’t simply hand out 25 points — it will settle a world title. Lando Norris reaches the finale with a 12-point cushion over Max Verstappen and a 16-point edge on Oscar Piastri. The last race of the year will be decisive, just as it was in 2021, when Verstappen beat Lewis Hamilton on the final lap thanks to a well-timed safety car; but you have to go back to 2010 to find three drivers with a mathematical chance. Curiously, that season the outsider, Sebastian Vettel, lifted the trophy after Ferrari threw away Fernando Alonso’s shot by covering an early stop from Mark Webber. These finales hinge on the smallest details — on strategy, reliability and luck.

Three-driver title showdown comes to Yas Marina

At this stage of the season, Yas Marina gives no one a particular edge. McLaren has been the reference point, but Red Bull has held its ground since late summer and the Emirati circuit isn’t especially tough on any key trait of these cars. Norris won here in 2024 and Verstappen dominated from 2020 to 2023. If Lando finishes on the podium, he is champion; if he comes fourth, he only needs Verstappen not to win. The Dutchman requires a small slip from the Briton, while Piastri needs his teammate to suffer a full blown collapse before he can pull out the calculator against Max.

Verstappen’s comeback in 2025 has no precedent in modern F1. He left Zandvoort 104 points behind the leader, who at the time was Piastri; and he reaches Abu Dhabi 12 points from Norris and four ahead of the Australian. He has effectively clawed back 108 points across eight grands prix. Yet not everything has been perfect in the year of “Mad Max”: he extracted the maximum from the RB21 in the first and final thirds of the season, but drifted through the summer with an unremarkable car and surrendered points that would be priceless now. In Barcelona he lost nine to a penalty after colliding with George Russell.

This season’s story also needs to be told from the other side — that of the dominant team that failed to close out the title on time, weighed down by errors and self-inflicted problems. Beyond McLaren’s occasional disconnects on cold or urban circuits such as Canada and Azerbaijan, the unfortunate crash between their two drivers in the Austin sprint, and Piastri’s late-season dip, the year ends in near farce with the double disqualification in Las Vegas and the glaring strategic mistake in Qatar: during a safety car, the entire grid pitted for fresh tires except the MCL39s. It cost Piastri the win and Norris the podium.

Why McLaren’s papaya rules may backfire

These types of situations shake the foundations of the papaya rules, McLaren’s internal code designed to guarantee equal opportunities for both drivers. In Losail, for instance, they could have solved the strategic mess easily by pitting one of them, but they didn’t want to compromise the other and ended up hurting both. Team principal Andrea Stella insists they won’t interfere in Abu Dhabi as long as Oscar remains in contention. But what happens Sunday if Norris’s title hopes depend on a favor from Piastri? With that uncertainty hanging in the air, Verstappen is rubbing his hands.

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