31-5: The stat that defines a punishing Champions League pathway

A punishing pathway and a peaceful pathway. That’s the story of the draw for this year’s Champions League knockout phase proper. By a twist of fate, Real Madrid has landed on the silver side of the bracket - a minefield where Bayern Munich looms in the quarterfinals for Álvaro Arbeloa’s team, and where Paris Saint-Germain and Liverpool also lie in wait. No shortage of danger there.

On the more manageable blue side, you’ll find the rest of the Spanish teams. Barcelona, with home-field advantage, will face Newcastle in the round of 16, but the horizon points to a potential Atlético Madrid-Barça showdown in the quarterfinals. Cholo Simeone’s side came out of the draw smiling: they’ll take on Tottenham (the alternative was Liverpool), and if they take down Spurs, they’d steal home-field advantage and host the second leg of the quarterfinals against either Barça or Newcastle at the Metropolitano. Tottenham finished fourth in the league phase, while Barça was fifth and Newcastle 12th.

Heavyweights aplenty on hellish silver side

That means no Madrid derby and no Clásico unless both teams reach a hypothetical final on May 30 in Budapest. For Madrid, if they get past City in the round of 16, a possible quarterfinal awaits against Vincent Kompany’s Bayern or Atalanta. It’s a silver side loaded with heavyweights. Alongside Madrid-City, PSG-Chelsea stands out as one of the marquee round-of-16 ties - a rematch of the final of the first Club World Cup. And the winner could very well run into Arne Slot’s Liverpool, who take on one of the biggest surprises of this top 16: Galatasaray. The Turkish side already beat the Reds in the league phase (1-0).

An unbalanced bracket

The silver route is unquestionably the toughest - packed with firepower. That half of the bracket contains a combined 31 Champions League titles and six former European champions. The blue side, meanwhile, is far more forgiving. Of its teams, only Barcelona has ever lifted the trophy, accounting for all five titles on that side. The remaining seven clubs - Arsenal, Tottenham, Atlético, Sporting CP, Bodø/Glimt, Leverkusen and Newcastle - have never won the European Cup. A disparity that naturally places Hansi Flick’s Barça among the favorites, though they may have to get past Atlético in the quarterfinals.

And on the lower section of the blue bracket, the big winner is Arsenal. The best team from the league phase - undefeated - will face Leverkusen in the round of 16, and would then take on the winner of Sporting CP vs Bodø/Glimt in the quarters. Two of the knockout phase proper’s rank outsiders. That means that should Atlético or Barcelona reach the semifinals, they appear likely to face a major obstacle in the form of Mikel Arteta’s “Spanish Arsenal”, featuring David Raya, Martín Zubimendi, Cristhian Mosquera and Mikel Merino. A mixed bag of luck for the Spanish teams.

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