Argentina need a miracle AND make history against Sweden

Logic says it’s not possible. The results gained so far and the predictions for the final games in Group G, suggest that Argentina have next to no chance of qualifying for the Round of 16 in the Women’s World Cup. On Wednesday, they will be up against a Sweden side that has struggled so far but who are mathematically already through to the next round. As things stands, it looks likely that they will be joined by Italy - who only need to avoid defeat to South Africa.

But Argentina are not entirely out of the picture. To have any chance of remaining at the tournament, they have to beat Sweden - and pray for a positive result in the group’s other game. Italy, who lost 5-0 to the Swedes in matchday 2, will ultimately decide Argentina’s fate - should Italy win, the Albiceleste will automatically be eliminated.

If Argentina win, a draw between South Africa and Italy would still be enough to ensure qualification.

In the event that both South Africa and Argentina win their respective games, the calculator would need to come out. That would leave both teams level on four points and second place would be determined firstly by goal difference and that’s where things might start to get interesting because both currently have an identical goal difference: -1. If both win by the same margin of goals, they will obviously finish with the same goal difference which would means the runners-up place would be decided by the next set of criteria - the team who has scored the most goals during the three group stage matches. Right now, South Africa have the edge in that department as they have scored three - one more than Argentina.

Put simply, if South Africa beat Italy by the minimum (1-0, 2-1, 3-2, 4-3...), Argentina would need to beat Sweden by two clear goals (2-0, 3-1, 4-2...); however, if South Africa beat Italy by a higher scoreline, Argentina would then require a huge win over the Scandinavians - beating them by three clear goals or more, and the history books tell us that is something that does not happen very often.

Sweden’s heaviest defeat at a World Cup was the 4-0 thrashing to neighbours Norway in January 1996.

On top of that, there is one other, slight snag...

Argentina have never won a match at a World Cup - they are still waiting for that first victory after four appearances.

The Albiceleste picked up their first point at a World Cup after holding Japan to a goalless draw in June 2019. Flor Bonsegundo’s stoppage-time spot-kick earned them a 3-3 against Scotland at the same tournament. During the current edition, they held South Africa to a 2-2 draw in their second game.

Those three draws are Argentina’s best results gained at a World Cup - they have never won a match and on Wednesday, they will have to just to have any chance of staying alive.

After the 2-2 draw with South Africa, coach Germán Portanova said: “the objective does not change” and that the team has faith that it can defy the odds and make history against Sweden. After the controversy over Yamila’s Cristiano Roanldo tattoo and Estefanía Banini’s shock decision to quit the the national team once the World Cup is over, the match against Sweden is seen as a turning point in the history of Argentina’s women’s team.

Eternal Vanina

There is only one player who can boast of having played every World Cup with Argentina to date. That is Vanina Correa, the goalkeeper who, at 39, remains a first-choice starter. She took part in the 2003 and 2007 finals in which, conceding 15 and 18 goals, respectively. From those numbers to the two draws in 2019, the evolution in Argentine women’s soccer never fails to surprise, so who know what might happen in Hamilton tomorrow.