Aston Villa vs Liverpool: What Friday’s Premier League clash means for Champions League hopes
Bournemouth and Brighton still have outside hopes, while Aston Villa could even open the door for sixth place.
The top five teams in the Premier League will play in the Champions League next season, with Arsenal, Manchester City and Manchester United already booking their places with two games still to play. Liverpool and Aston Villa, who meet in Birmingham on Friday, are almost there too, but still have a little work to do.
The two teams are locked together on 59 points from 36 games, although the Reds are in fourth place, just ahead of Villa, due to their superior goal difference, +12 to +4. With the top five qualifying for the Champions League, finishing fourth or fifth theoretically does not matter.
A victory at Villa Park on Friday will ensure a place in next season’s league phase for the winning team, no questions asked.
What happens if Aston Villa and Liverpool draw?
The beaten side could seal qualification before next weekend’s final round, but only if sixth-placed Bournemouth lose to Manchester City on Tuesday and Brighton, currently seventh, fail to defeat Leeds United on Sunday.
A draw between Villa and Liverpool would ensure both a top-five finish if Bournemouth do not beat City in midweek.
There is no way both Villa and Liverpool can drop out of the top five, which means at least one of the two will play in the Champions League in 2026-27.
The likelihood, however, is that they will both be there. For Bournemouth to clinch fifth place, they would have to win their last two games, including a trip to Nottingham Forest on the final day, and hope either Aston Villa or Liverpool collect no more than one point from their remaining fixtures. The Villains travel to City on Matchday 38, while the Reds host Brentford.
Bournemouth and Brighton still have hope
Brighton need a minor miracle to finish fifth, although it is mathematically possible. The Seagulls must win their last two games and hope either Villa or Liverpool lose both of theirs, which would allow Brighton to finish ahead on goal difference. They would also need Bournemouth to drop points in at least one of their final two matches.
How sixth place can still qualify for the Champions League
That said, there is one scenario in which the team that finishes sixth could also sneak into the league phase of the Champions League. That will only occur if Aston Villa finish fifth, where they are at the moment, and beat Freiburg in the Europa League final on Wednesday, May 20.
Villa’s final league position will not be known until the weekend after that, although winning the Europa League would secure Champions League qualification regardless. The knock-on effect could result in Bournemouth, Brighton or perhaps Brentford also qualifying for the competition for the first time in club history, with Chelsea and Everton all but out of the reckoning.
We’ll take a closer look at the final-day permutations when the time comes.
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