Fluminense vs Boca Juniors odds and predictions: who is the favorite in the 2023 Copa Libertadores final?

The Maracanã in Rio will host the 64th Copa Libertadores final this weekend - a clash between two clubs with contrasting fortunes in the history of the tournament. For Boca Juniors, this will be the 12th time they have contested the trophy. Of those finals, the Argentine giants ended up lifting the cup six times - only compatriots Independiente have won more titles.

It’s a different story for O Flu - this will be just their second appearance in a Copa Libertadores final. The Brazilians lost the 2008 final to LDU Quito on penalties after it ended 5-5 on aggregate over two legs.

Fluminense secured top spot in Group D on goal difference - much of that was down to their memorable 5-1 victory over River Plate in matchday 3. Fernando Diniz’s men had a relatively easier time in the knockout rounds but didn’t exactly breeze through. Home victories against Olimpia and Argentinos Juniors set them on their way to the semi-finals - two very close games against Internacional with the tie being decided in the final minutes of the return leg, thanks to Germán Cano’s late winner. The Uruguayan is the team’s top scorer in the competition with 12 goals, including a hat trick against River. They also have a seasoned winner in Marcelo - a player who has won just about every honor in the game.

Boca agony in knockout rounds

Boca meanwhile strolled through the qualifying round - a slim 1-0 defeat away at Pereira was the only blip on a near faultless group stage campaign which saw them end top of Group F with a five-point advantage of their nearest rivals. The knockout stage was a bit more nerve-racking for Jorge Almirón’s side - all three of their ties were resolved from the penalty spot. Boca kept their nerve to win shootouts against Nacional, Racing and Palmeiras.

Four of those games ended without any goals at all and that is an area in which the Argentineans could suffer against Fluminense in the final. In terms of goals, they are averaging half as many as the Brazilians although they do have proven scorers right the way through the squad.

At the start of the tournament neither Boca nor Fluminense were expected to get this far. Despite their tradition and pedigree, the Argentineans, with their lack of firepower in attack and struggles to kill games off, go into the game as the underdogs with the bookmakers, with odds of +145 while the Brazilians are rated at -140.

Prediction: Boca Juniors 1-2 Fluminense