Has the hype-train overtaken Erling Haaland?
Statistics show that teams win both with and without the Norwegian machine in the side - is his importance overstated?
Erling Haaland probably wouldn’t win in a race against a train, but I’m only saying that because I have no evidence; everything else he tries to do he completes with such insulting ease that it makes you wonder if 2 points per win for Manchester City might be a fair change to the rules.
His arrival in Manchester was met with genuine fear by the rest of the league; not only was it his goal numbers that caused twitches and shivers but his deep, piercing eye sockets that make you actively search around his face for emotion, thighs as large as a bison’s neck and that brilliant, blonde ponytail that says ‘if anyone else had this you’d make fun of them, but not me’.
But evidence suggests that his goals, while many in number, are not of insurmountable importance to his teams, as they tend to win anyway. According to the lovely people at Sofascore, while Erling’s presence does tend to mean that his teams are more likely to win, the numbers are not quite as stark as one might believe.
At Borussia Dortmund, despite the statistics and movement and growling anger with which he plays the game, his presence on the pitch only contributed to a 5.8% increase of whether his team won or not, with the German outfit winning 62.9% of games (89 matches) with Haaland and 57.1% without him (28 matches).
Haaland has started 11 of City’s games this season, scoring 17 goals. That is one goal every 54 minutes which is a quite incredible return. But it is perhaps the variety of his goals which is what causes people to photoshop his head onto the body of Terminator: against Manchester United he towered above Scott McTominay with a thunderous header before outrunning Raphael Varane - who is no slouch - to get on the end of a Kevin De Bruyne cross. For the third goal of his hat-trick he opened a door to the fourth dimension, slipping inside to hide from Martínez, before reappearing and smashing a cross into the roof of De Gea’s goal.
The numbers at Manchester City highlight his brutal impact on the team Pep Guardiola had set up so differently before his arrival. Guardiola had already constructed one of the most impressive sides in Europe prior to the Norwegian landing in the north-west, but one that was obviously void of a primary cannon at the top end. It worked, for the most part, with City breaking all sorts of records for wins, points gained and goals scored; it was only the Champions League trophy that evaded their blue ribbons being tied to it.
At Manchester City the difference is a little more stark, with City only having a 50% win record without him, as opposed to a 68.9% record with him on the pitch. The caveat here is that the 50% record consists of a win against Leicester, a draw against Copenhagen and nothing else. We shall see if time will either support the statistic or send it skewing the other way.
The Norwegian national team is perhaps where we see the most influence from Haaland. Playing in a team that does not dominate the country, globe or solar system like Manchester City do, the striker’s influence is paramount. With him in the side, Norway have won almost 60% of the 19 games and without him that number drops to just above 33% (out of 9 matches).
Of course, all ‘criticism’ here is in jest towards the man from Leeds. Haaland has taught the Premier League a lesson about scoring goals (so much so that millions signed a petition to remove him from the league). Currently, the Norwegian is out injured with both fever and a foot problem, but his return will no doubt signal more sleepless nights for people all across the UK.
If you’ve never heard of Sofascore, make sure to check them out here for more great statistics and football facts.