SOCCER
How much does the Premier League table normally change in the second half of the season?
How much can the Premier League league table at the halfway stage help us predict the final standings?
This is it for Arsenal. Five points clear at the top of the Premier League table with a game in hand midway through the season, they surely won’t throw it away, will they? Sorry if I’m tempting fate, Gunners fans, but recent history tends to suggest that there’s not too much for you all to worry about. Only twice in the last seven seasons have the league leaders after 19 games (Arsenal have played only 18, even better!) failed to go on to win the title, so get the champagne on ice…
Let’s delve into the data a little bit further. To what extent is the Premier League table halfway through the season an indicator of how things will finish up? With help from our friends at Sofascore, who have compiled these lovely graphics, we’ve gone back to the 15/16 season to compare the standings after 19 and 38 games. How many changes do there tend to be in the top four and the bottom three? And what can that tell us about the second half of the 2022/23 campaign?
2015/16 season
Top four – no changes
The top four teams remained the same but all changed positions. This, of course, is the one season when nobody really cared about who finished in the top four, it was all about Leicester City. Even though they received plenty of plaudits, they probably still don’t get enough praise for winning this title (and by 10 points!).
Bottom three – one change
Absolutely awful from Aston Villa, who went on to spend three seasons in the Championship. Sunderland escaped – but not for long – and were replaced by Norwich City, who suffered their second Premier League relegation in three years.
2016/17 season
Top four – one change
Only league winners Chelsea maintained their position from the halfway point, with Manchester City, after a slow start in Pep Guardiola’s first season in charge, replacing Arsenal in the Champions League places.
Bottom three – one change
Swansea City escaped relegation having being bottom of the table midway through the season, with Middlesbrough dropping into the bottom three after just five league wins all season.
2017/18 season
Top four – one change
Manchester City were a million miles ahead halfway through the campaign and it stayed that way as they romped to the title, becoming the first – and so far only – team in Premier League history to hit 100 points. Tottenham broke into the top four in the second half of the season at Chelsea’s expense.
Bottom three – one change
For the second season running, Swansea were bottom of the table after 19 games and there was to be no escaping this time. Bournemouth edged their way to safety and were replaced by Stoke City, whose 10-year stay in the top flight came to an end.
2018/19 season
Top four – no changes
The names stayed the same but they order very much changed. No more so than right at the top of the tree as City overcame a seven-point deficit at halfway to pip Liverpool, who at that point hadn’t won a league title for an agonising 29 years.
Bottom three – one change
If you thought Aston Villa in 2015/16 were awful, then try Huddersfield Town three years later. The Terriers picked up just six points in the second half of the season. Burnley escaped, as they would often do, with Cardiff City sucked into the bottom three.
2019/20 season
Top four – one change
Finally, finally for Liverpool. The Reds couldn’t mess it up after being an incredible 16 points clear at the halfway stage. Just a shame that no fans were there to witness it…Leicester faded after an excellent start to the season, which let Manchester United into the top four.
Bottom three – one change
It wasn’t looking good for Villa in their first season back in the big time but they managed to scrape their way to survival on the final day of the season. Bournemouth were the victims.
2020/21 season
Top four – two changes
The only season since 2015/16 in which there have been two changes in the top four. Leicester – again – and Spurs began well but couldn’t keep their good form up, being replaced by stalwarts of the old ‘big four’ back in the 2000s, Liverpool and Chelsea. United looked to be up for a title fight but City pulled away.
Bottom three – no changes
If Sheffield United had performed in the first half of the season as they did in the second, they would’ve stayed up comfortably. But they didn’t, they were dreadful.
2021/22 season
Top four - one change
Like in 2018/19, Manchester City won the title by a point from Liverpool. Arsenal were in pole position to qualify for the Champions League for most of the season but suffered a late collapse and were overtaken by North London rivals Spurs. Ouch.
Bottom three – one change
Newcastle surely couldn’t get relegated just after being taken over by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund and becoming the richest club in the world, could they? No, they couldn’t. Burnley, not quite as wealthy, went down instead after six years in the Premier League.
What will happen in the 2022/23 Premier League season?
What does all this mean for the second half of the 2022/23 season? Although Liverpool blew a seven-point lead in 2018/19, Arsenal will never have a better chance of winning their first league title since 2003/04 after a superb start to the campaign. History suggests that one team will drop out of the top four. Newcastle would be the obvious candidates but with Liverpool (10 points behind), Chelsea (10) and Spurs (five) in fairly wretched form, it’s hard to see any of the usual suspects making up the gap to the Magpies at the moment.
There hasn’t been more than a single change in the relegation zone over the previous seven Premier League campaigns but the bottom half of the table is tighter than ever this term. West Ham United, Everton and Southampton occupy the bottom three spots for now but Leeds United, Leicester, Wolves and Bournemouth are no more than a couple of points better off, which makes it nigh-on impossible to predict.