Is Argentina qualified for the Copa América quarterfinals if they win against Chile?

Argentina couldn’t have asked for a better start to their 2024 Copa América campaign. The Albiceleste won their opening game against Canada 2-0 , with Julián Álvarez and Lautaro Martínez finding the net. The other game in Group A between Peru and Chile ended without goals - a result which puts Lionel Scaloni’s team in an even more advantageous position in the section.

It means that Argentina could secure their place in the next round before their last group game against Peru on 29 June. The top two teams in each of the four groups will advance to the quarter finals although there will be a difference between finishing first or second, which we will explain below.

What happens if Argentina wins against Chile?

A victory against Chile at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey this evening would guarantee Argentina’s place in the quarter finals regardless of what happens elsewhere in the group or the results in any of the final group games at the weekend. A win would leave Lionel Scaloni’s team top of Group A on six points and with just one remote possibility of not finishing as champions of the group.

Only defeat to Peru in the final group game could deny Argentina from finishing first in the group (Peru would have to win both of their remaining games for that to happen) - but even then, they would still qualify for the next round as runners-up.

What happens if Argentina draws or loses against Chile?

The situation would be look very different if Argentina don’t manage to beat Chile this evening.

A draw would leave Lionel Messi’s team on four points with the same goal difference as they have now - +2. But their position in the standings would depend on what happens in the other game in Group A down in Kansas City. If Argentina draw against Chile and Peru beats Canada, the group would be topped by Argentina and Peru, both on four points. However, goal difference could also be a factor. Peru would need to beat Canada by three goals or more to go top, moving past Argentina with a superior goal difference.

If both of this evening’s games end level. Argentina would remain top on four points, Peru and Chile would be level on two points with the same goal difference with Canada bringing up the rear, bottom of the group on zero points and -2 goal difference. Such an outcome would leave the group’s final standings to be decided in the final group games at the weekend, with Argentina, Peru and Chile all having options to make the quarter finals.

Argentina could find themselves in real problems if they lose to Chile. If that happens and Peru beats Canada, Scaloni’s men would drop down to third and out of the qualification berths. That would be the worst case scenario as it would leave Argentina needing to beat Peru in the final game to progress.

Defeat to Chile and a Canada victory wouldn’t be so bad as there would a chance that Argentina would at least remain in the qualifying positions - depending on how many goals go in tonight. Canada would need to win by a big margin and Argentina to lose by two goals or more for that to happen, which seems unlikely.

Bearing in mind that Chile beat Argentina in two recent Copa América finals (on penalties...), La Roja should not be underestimated - even if the Albiceleste have the upper hand overall historically. In 94 previous meetings with Chile, including friendlies, Argentina have won 62, lost eight and drawn 24.

The current Argentina side is one of the most consistent on the planet, having lost just two games since July 2019 - a shock defeat to Saudi Arabia at the last World Cup and a 0-2 reverse to Uruguay at La Bombonera in a World Cup qualifier last November.