Manchester City win over Liverpool would lift title chances to 86%
A City win against Liverpool at the Etihad on Sunday would almost certainly see off the Reds’ title challenge, according to analysis provided by Nielsen’s Gracenote. Just one point separates the two clubs in the Premier League.
Manchester City play host to Liverpool on Sunday in a match which could have a big say in who wins this season’s Premier League title. City go into the game have led for most of the campaign but their advantage has been whittled down to just one point. The only team who have a realistic chance of knocking them off top spot and clinching the title is Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool, who are unbeaten in the league since December and have dropped points just once since the New Year started - in the 2-2 draw with Chelsea on 2 January. Nielsen’s Gracenote sports data tool has been crunching the numbers, analysing the key statistics ahead of the game.
City and Liverpool are ranked the top two teams in the Euro Club Index. The index estimates that Guardiola’s team have a 61% chance of winning the title while Liverpool have a 39% chance. Victory for City on Sunday would enhance their chances of retaining the Premier League title to 86% while an away win for Liverpool would give them a 68% chance of reclaiming it. A draw would give City the advantage in the title race (63% chance of winning to Liverpool’s 37%). After facing Liverpool, City play Brighton, Watford, Leeds, Newcastle, West Ham, Wolves and Aston Villa. Liverpool’s run-in meanwhile, sees them take on Manchester United, Everton, Newcastle, Tottenham, Aston Villa and Southampton.
Goals flood in for Klopp’s Liverpool
Liverpool have scored more goals (77) than City (70) for the first time since Pep Guardiola’s first campaign in 2016-17. Klopp’s team have already scored more goals than previous Liverpool managed in 22 complete Premier League campaigns - including the first three seasons when the division featured 22 teams. It is Liverpool’s second-most potent attack in the club’s history after the 2013/14 squad under Brendan Rodgers, who were on 82 goals at the same stage of the season and finished on 101 goals - a club record. In spite of that, they still lost the title to City by two points.
Liverpool are creating more opportunities and needing fewer shots to score compared to City. Liverpool have had 557 attempts on goal this season, the highest since Jürgen Klopp took over in 2015 and a near 30% increase from last season. Opponents average 12 shots per goal this season when centre back Virgil van Dijk plays for Liverpool, compared to 6.7 shots without him when he was injured last season. Liverpool were also conceding around twice as many goals prior to signing Van Dijk in January 2018.