MLS Decision Day: all possible scenarios for each team

Saturday is the final day of the MLS regular season, the crucial Decision Day for ten teams still looking to book their place in the playoffs.

FC Cincinnati wrapped up the Supporters’ Shield earlier this month, while MLS debutants St. Louis CITY SC have secured top spot in the Western Conference. But behind them nearly every team has something to play for going into the final round of regular season fixtures.

Whether it’s playoff qualification, home advantage or a place in the record books, there’s plenty to play for on Decision Day 2023.

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Who can make the playoffs in the MLS Eastern Conference?

In the East there is a five-way battle to make it to the playoffs, with just three points separating CF Montreal in 8th and New York City FC in 13th. DC United have already played their final MLS fixture so, despite being in 9th as it stands, cannot mathematically make it to the post-season.

Montreal are in pole position on 41 points, while NY Red Bulls, Chicago Fire and Charlotte FC are all locked on 40 points. Behind them, NYCFC (38 points) would need a victory and for other results go their way to qualify.

First and second place in the East has already been wrapped up by Cincinnati and Orlando City, respectively, but below them the picture is less clear. Any two of Philadelphia Union, Columbus Crew and New England Revolution could finish in the top four and receive home advantage in the Round One of the playoffs.

Cincinnati have already lifted the Supporters’ Shield trophy, but a win against Atlanta United on the final day would make them just the fourth team in MLS history to reach 70 points. But be weary, Cincy fans; none of the previous three sides who hit that mark have gone on to win the MLS Cup.

Who can make the playoffs in the MLS Western Conference?

There’s a similar picture in the West, where five teams are still fighting to make it to the post-season. Ahead of the final round of fixtures just two points separates Portland Timbers in 7th and Minnesota United in 11th.

The Timbers are one of three teams on 43 points, along with FC Dallas and the San Jose Earthquakes. Just behind them, and currently outside the playoff places, are Sporting Kansas City and Minnesota on 41 points. Any of those teams could secure the final guaranteed playoff place (7th) but could also miss out on the post-season entirely.

At the top of the table St. Louis CITY have already secured the number one spot. Behind them, reigning MLS Cup champions LAFC are guaranteed home advantage for Round One at least. The other four teams already in the playoffs - Seattle Sounders, Houston Dynamo, Real Salt Lake, Vancouver Whitecaps - can all make top three, but could all finish as low as 6th.

St. Louis close out their first regular season campaign with a home game against Seattle Sounders. If they win that they will surpass LAFC’s record points tally for a team’s inaugural MLS season (57 points).