Real Madrid’s Vinicius Jr making case for 2023 Ballon d’Or

Vinicius has gone from being an underdog to a serious candidate for the 2023 Ballon d’Or award, one that’s determined and resolute. There is still some way to go before he becomes a ‘favorite’, but his performances in recent months has closed the gap with those deemed ahead of him.

Why Vinicius’ Ballon d’Or stock is rising

There is no specific date yet for when it will be awarded, but it will likely be between October and November of this year. At the moment, Messi is being hotly tipped to pick up yet another gong, buoyed by the mystique of the 2022 Qatar World Cup. In a survey conducted in March, 73% of the public would give him the award. But they don’t decide and there are still around six months left and much still to be played out. But Vinicius has now established himself as one of the most in-form players of the moment. In the entire world.

The numbers reflect it. With his missile against City, he not only beat Ederson, but also his own personal record: it is already the best scoring season of his career (23, in all competitions; surpassing the 22 of last season and games to come).

It was his seventh strike in a Champions League knockout match (two in the round of 16, two in the quarterfinals, two in the semis, and the one in Saint-Denis). Decisive.

And it’s not just about goals, but also about assists, The Brazilian has participated in goals across ten consecutive games, either with the his own signature (4) or with the assist (10). He is the axis of this Real Madrid team; a cornerstone. In total, he has already participated in 42 of the team’s 121 goals, a massive 35%.

But there is even more data that supports his outstanding season: he is the only player with over 20 goals and assists in the big five European leagues. He is improving and leading the team during a stretch of the season where Benzema appears to be more of a killer than a false nine, scoring more goals than creating them. With the captain’s performance fading, the creation of danger is passing through his boots.

Against City, he once again demonstrated that he is the offensive nucleus of the team: he had the most shots on goal (3), completed the most passes in the final third of the field (15), and completed the most dribbles (5). He also scored the decisive goal. Another strong argument for his candidacy.

Who is favorite for the 2023 Ballon d’Or?

At present, everything is highly unpredictable, but some markets are already forecasting the future. Messi is the clear favorite with average odds of @1.50, which can be simply translated as an almost 70% chance of success. It is not a certainty, but it is evident that he is the front-runner.

Behind him are Mbappé (@3.00) and Haaland (@5.00). In a tie for fourth place are Benzema and Lewandowski, and just behind is Vinicius (@11.0), who is so close and yet so far. In his favor, a few months ago, his odds were almost double that.

Winning the Champions League with two more influential performances could be a game-changer, a solid argument to at least spark a debate, to try and overshadow Messi’s World Cup win. With the domestic league title long gone, it is the last card he has to play.