Reasons for USMNT optimism & pessimism ahead of Mexico Nations League tie

The United States and Mexico meet at Las Vegas’ Allegiant Stadium on Thursday, in a clash that will determine the identity of the CONCACAF Nations League’s second finalist.

The semi-final in Nevada is a repeat of the 2021 final, which saw the USMNT claim the inaugural Nations League title in a thrilling clash in Denver, Christian Pulisic’s extra-time penalty earning the Stars and Stripes victory.

Certainly, the importance of Thursday’s last-four match-up is not lost on anyone in the USMNT, who will look to extend their good run of results against their regional rivals and set up a trophy decider against either Panama or Canada.

Against Mexico, the USMNT will be playing their first game under a new interim head coach, after Anthony Hudson was replaced by BJ Callaghan at the end of May.

Reasons for US optimism

Callaghan has full complement

The new USMNT boss has no selection concerns ahead of the game at Allegiant Stadium. He takes his side to Las Vegas with all his major stars available to him: the likes of Christian Pulisic, Gio Reyna and Matt Turner. Callaghan also has Folarin Balogun at his disposal, after the striker’s decision to commit to the US over England.

US on a roll against Mexico

The USMNT last lost to Mexico in September 2019. Since then, the Americans have gone five games unbeaten against El Tri - a sequence that has included wins in the finals of the Gold Cup and Nations League, as well as a victory and a draw in qualifying for World Cup 2022.

Strong attack

While the team’s defence is an area that Callaghan will be tasked with working on, in attack they boast a number of potential match winners. Balogun, Ricardo Pepi, Pulisic, Reyna and Brenden Aaronson are players capable of deciding the outcome of a game.

Reasons for US pessimism

Potential effects of recent shake-up

The chiefest source of doubt surrounding this USMNT team is how it will settle into life under Callaghan. Under Hudson, the Stars and Stripes showed some encouraging signs, but they must now acclimatise to another new coach. That Callaghan is making his debut in a game of this significance is not ideal.

Players in poor form

While the USMNT boasts a raft of players who ply their trade in European soccer, it should also be noted that a number of these stars are not having the best time of it at club level. Players such as Pulisic, Reyna, Sergiño Dest, Yunus Musah and Weston McKennie all got game time for their clubs this season, but not as much as they would have liked.

Split crowd at Allegiant Stadium

Although Thursday’s game will take place on US soil, there’ll be plenty of Mexico supporters inside Allegiant Stadium. That isn’t great news for the USMNT, who in the past have visibly benefited from having strong home backing.