What does Italy need to qualify for the round of 16 at Euro 2024? Possible outcomes

Italy have made a somewhat shaky start to their defence of the European Championship title they won in 2021, with three points from their opening two fixtures at Euro 2024 leaving them with work to do to ensure qualification for the round of 16 against Croatia in Leipzig on Monday on matchday three.

Luciano Spalletti’s team conceded the fastest goal in the competition’s history in their opening Group B game against Albania, although Nedim Bajrami’s 23-second strike was soon overturned by efforts from Alessandro Bastoni and Nicolò Barella.

Riccardo Calafiori’s own goal then consigned the Italians to a 1-0 defeat to Spain in Gelsenkirchen, although Italian media claimed the narrow loss wasn’t a true indication of the gulf in quality between the two teams on the night, with the Spaniards in total control.

How Italy can seal second place in Group B

Italy head into their third match against Croatia in a strong position to reach the last 16 alongside La Roja, who have already qualified as group winners with a game to spare. Spalletti’s men are currently second on three points, with the Croats and Albania both having collected a single point.

The top two nations from each of the six four-team groups are assured of progressing to the round of 16, and Italy need only a draw against Croatia on Monday to finish second. That would move them onto four points, a tally Albania can also get to if they upset Spain, although the Azzurri hold the head-to-head advantage, which is the first tie-breaker if teams finish level on points.

Can Italy qualify for the round of 16 if they lose to Croatia?

If Italy were to lose to Croatia in Leipzig, then there could be trouble for the reigning champions. Luka Modric and Co would leapfrog them into second place, and they would finish bottom of Group B if Albania were to defeat Spain.

If the Albanians don’t beat the Spanish, Italy would finish third on three points and would depend on results later this week going their way.

The best four of the six third-placed teams will qualify for the last 16, with the nations in question ranked by virtue of points, then goal difference, then goals scored, then number of wins, then disciplinary record.

As the Italians play in the second round of games on matchday three, they would have to wait until the conclusion of Group F on Wednesday to know their fate.

If they lose to Croatia by less than three goals, they would be ahead of Hungary, confirmed as third in Group A, in the ranking of third-placed teams, which would certainly help their case. They would then need one other third-placed team (two if they lose by more than three goals to Croatia) to have a worse overall record than them by the time the group stage finishes.

Since the European Championship’s expansion to 24 teams eight years ago, three points from three matches was enough for Portugal, who won the tournament, and Northern Ireland to progress at Euro 2016, and for Ukraine at Euro 2020. However, five of the eight third-placed qualifiers in the previous two tournaments have needed at least four points to reach the last 16.