What does PSG need to qualify for the Champions League round of 16?

Out of all of the groups in this year’s Champions League, one remains almost as wide open on matchday 6 as when the tournament kicked off back in September. The only certainty is that Borussia Dortmund are through to the next round, most likely as winners of the group although even that isn’t guaranteed.

Everyone else - PSG, Newcastle and AC Milan will be jostling for second place. Just two points separate PSG, who occupy that position at the moment, and Milan in fourth.

On the plus side for Luis Enrique’s side, a draw might be enough to see them through - depending on what happens between Newcastle and Milan at St James’ Park. The flip side is that coming away from Signal Iduna Park with a result tonight is not going to be straightforward - at least when you consider PSG’s away form in the competition. The French side have looked convincing at home but lost both of their away trips, crashing to a 4-1 defeat to Newcastle on matchday 2 and just missing out during their trip to Milan last month.

Win or draw

For PSG, the only sure route to the Round of 16 is by beating Dortmund - as they did when they met in Paris on matchday 1. Since then, the Germans are unbeaten, dropping just two points in the next four games.

Domestically, Dortmund’s home form has been impressive. Only two teams have managed to beat them on home turf this season - Bayern and Leipzig - in the latter, playing most of the game with 10 men.

Much will depend on the result of the other game. If it ends all square between Newcastle and Milan then PSG will be safely into the knockout round. If it doesn’t, they will need to take something from their visit to Germany.

Goal difference could come into it as well - if PSG draw and Newcastle win, there is a chance that both teams could be tied on points with the same goal difference. Should that happen, the team’s final positions in the standings will be determined by the number of goals scored in the group matches played between them. That would favor the Magpies - they beat PSG 4-1 on matchday 2 while the return fixture in Paris ended 1-1.

Tiebreaker last season

Curiously, something similar happened with PSG at the same stage last season. Benfica and PSG were tied on points, goal difference and overall goals scored. Their final positions were decided by total away goals scored - Benfica with nine topped the group, PSG who scored six finished behind them in second.

Let’s look at all of the possible permutations.