What result does USMNT need to qualify for the Copa América quarterfinals? All possible combinations

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The USMNT have given themselves serious work to do to qualify for the Copa América 2024 quarterfinals after their surprise 2-1 defeat to Panama on Thursday. Gregg Berhalter’s team would’ve been through had they held onto the lead given to them by Folarin Balogun, but Tim Weah’s first-half red card proved costly. They now go into Monday’s third Group C fixtures against Uruguay in Kansas City with everything on the line.

How the USMNT can beat Uruguay and still go out

After two fixtures, the Stars and Stripes and Panama are both three points behind group leaders Uruguay, who have won both of their opening matches in emphatic fashion. The South Americans need just a point to be completely sure of qualifying, although their +7 goal difference means they are already all but through.

Goal difference is the first tie-breaker and, as it stands, the USMNT (+1) are two goals better off than Panama (-1). A win against Uruguay would likely send the US through, although they could, in theory, beat Marcelo Bielsa’s side and still be eliminated if the Panamanians also down Bolivia, who have no points yet, and overturn the goal differential.

For instance, if Berhalter’s team beat Uruguay 1-0 and Panama win 3-0 or more against Bolivia, the Central Americans will go through in second spot and the USMNT will be heading out, despite collecting six points.

If the US beat Uruguay 4-0, they are guaranteed to finish above their matchday three opponents and qualify for the next round. However, a 3-0 win wouldn’t be enough, as the Uruguayans would finish ahead of them on goals scored, the second tie-breaker.

How can the USMNT qualify for the quarterfinals with a draw?

If the game at Arrowhead Stadium finishes in a draw, the USMNT will only qualify for the next round if Panama fail to beat Bolivia in Orlando.

Are the USMNT out of the Copa América 2024 if they lose to Uruguay?

A defeat to Uruguay would almost be fatal, but not quite. The United States would need Panama to lose to Bolivia and not have their goal difference advantage wiped out. If Berhalter’s team were to be beaten 2-0, any loss for Panama would send the US through.

However, a 3-0 defeat to Uruguay and a 1-0 reverse for Panama against Bolivia would leave the teams with identical records in terms of points, goal difference, goals scored and against. In that case, the USMNT would go out by virtue of losing the game between the teams on matchday two.

Generally speaking, if both teams lose, the States will only be in danger if they are beaten 3-0 or more.

Should the hosts lose, Panama will go through to the round of 16 with a draw or better.

Bolivia can only overhaul the US if there is an unlikely eight-goal swing on matchday three (a 4-0 win for the South Americans and a 4-0 loss for the Stars and Stripes would see Bolivia progress on goals scored).