When is the earliest Real Madrid can win LaLiga?

Arda Güler edged Real Madrid a step closer to the league title on Friday. He met Dani Carvajal’s low centre on 28 minute to slot in the only goal of the game at Reale Arena and give Carlo Ancelotti’s side three valuable points in their charge towards the title. The result leaves Madrid on 84 points - a huge 14 points ahead of their closest rivals, Barcelona in second on 70. The Catalans face Valencia at home on Monday night but after Madrid’s win in San Sebastian tonight, any hopes of snatching LaLiga away from Los Blancos might just be a bridge too far for Xavi’s men.

Madrid go 14 points clear at the top

After this weekend’s fixtures are concluded, both Madrid, Barcelona and Girona - the only three teams who mathematically still have a chance of being crowned champions, will have five games left to play. As things stand today, ahead of Girona’s trip to Las Palmas and Barça’s home game against Valencia, both of the coastal clubs would need Madrid to lose all of their remaining games - and win all of theirs, to have any hope of causing an upset.

Obviously, that is a set of circumstances that has never happened in the Spanish top flight. Real Madrid’s worst run in recent seasons was in 2018/19 when they dropped 14 out of a possible 15 points between Week 6 and Week 10 of the campaign - a dismal run which cost Julen Lopetegui his job. Real Madrid have only lost five games on the trot once - at the tail end of the 2003/4 season when Carlos Queiroz’s galácticos spectacularly collapsed, having gone from being challengers to the treble to having their title ambitions crushed after defeats to Barcelona, Deportivo, Mallorca, Murcia and La Real.

It’s extremely hard, if not impossible to see Ancelotti’s side imploding in a similar way - in fact they’ve only lost one game so far this season: the derby to Atleti in Week 6. On top of that, the two other challengers, Barcelona and Girona face each other next weekend...

Looking at what’s left for the three teams still in with a shout, Madrid have an easier run-in - on paper. Perhaps the away trip to Villarreal looks the toughest of the five but even then you wouldn’t bet on a home win - Villarreal have won that fixture just three times in 23 meetings...

Two difficult away games for Barcelona

Xavi’s Barça on the other hand have to travel to Girona and are away at Sevilla on the last day. The Andalucians will want to give their fans a good send-off for the summer and besides, by then it will probably by all over.

Much will depend on what happens this weekend with Barcelona. If the Blaugranas lose to Valencia, the distance will remain 14 points; if they draw, it will be 13 points. If Xavi’s team fail to win on Monday, Madrid would just need a win or a draw against Cádiz next weekend to be crowned champions.

If Barcelona beats Valencia, the distance will be 11 points with 15 points in play. In that scenario, Madrid would need to beat Cádiz and wait for Barça to drop points in any of the remaining five games to be crowned champions.

If both Real Madrid and Barcelona keep winning, it will be mathematically impossible to catch Ancelotti’s men by Week 36 , when they host Alavés at the Bernabéu.