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Which team is most likely to win the World Cup?

Which team has the highest chance of winning the Qatar World Cup 2022?

FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022

The clock is well and truly counting down for the winner of the Qatar World Cup 2022 to be crowned. Croatia, Argentina, Morocco and France are the four best teams remaining in the tournament and have secured their place in the semi-finals. 3 games remain to find out which country will lift the trophy next Sunday, December 18, at the Lusail Stadium.

Qatar World Cup 2022 quarter finals:

FiveThirtyEight carried out a probability test using a data model with the teams that could advance to the semi finals, the final and then win the World Cup.

NationMake final (%)Win World Cup (%)


Semifinal Odds

Argentina vs Croatia

  • Argentina to make it to the final: 64%
  • Croatia to make it to the final: 36%

France vs Morocco

  • France to make it to the final: 66%
  • Morocco to make it to the final: 34%

As we can see from Fivethirtyeight’s data, there are two clear favourites for the final: Argentina and France. We will have to wait to see if, on 13 and 14 December if the two underdogs can spring any surprises, or if it will be a Messi vs Mbappé in the ultimate showpiece event.


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