The model that’s 3 for 3: Why you shouldn’t bet against this country winning the World Cup

A German economist has predicted the winner of the upcoming men’s World Cup - using a projection model that has accurately forecast the champions of the last three editions of the FIFA tournament.

Dutch delight in 2026?

Joachim Klement, the head of strategy at Panmure Liberium investment bank, is tipping the Netherlands to lift the title at this summer’s tournament, held in North America from June 11.

Klement arrived at this conclusion using a model that blends economic, demographic and geographical factors with sporting data, and acknowledges the impact of Lady Luck. First used to correctly predict Germany as winners of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, the system also forecast France’s victory at Russia 2018, and Argentina’s success in Qatar four years later.

Yet Klement first created his World Cup prediction model in the expectation that it would be utterly wide of the mark. His intention was to show “the hubris of economists”, he wrote in a recent Substack post.

“Started as a bit of a joke”

“To be perfectly honest, this all started 12 years ago as a bit of a joke,” Klement added in an interview with CNN this month. “As an exercise in showing to the world that economists think they can predict absolutely everything, even if they have no clue. And then the worst thing happened: I got it right three times with that model.”

So how does Klement’s World Cup prediction model work?

As Klement sets out in this explainer, his model assesses countries’ chances of World Cup success by focusing, to a significant extent, on the following variables:

• Per-capita gross domestic product (GDP): A nation must be well-off enough to invest in the infrastructure - pitches, stadiums, academies - needed to develop soccer talent. This does not mean, though, that it is not simply a case of the wealthier, the better. “If a country is too rich, kids may choose other sports or video games over playing football,” Klement explains.
• Population: The more people a country has, the greater the potential talent pool. However, this population depth must be allied with a national sporting culture that affords prominent status to soccer.
• Weather: A country’s average temperature is an “important contributing factor”, Klement says. “If a country is too cold or too hot, it becomes too difficult or even impossible to play football.” Countries in southern Europe and South America tend to have average temperatures closest to the ideal heat for soccer: 14ºC.
• Host nation and FIFA ranking: A country’s position in the world rankings offers an indication of its team’s quality and recent form, while home advantage is also beneficial. “The support from the majority of the fans in a stadium gives a team that slight edge”, Klement says.

How the Netherlands stacks up:

• Population: 18.4 million (71st in world)
• Soccer a mainstream sport? Yes
• Average temperature: 10.5ºC
• GDP per capita: $77,000 (18th in world)
• Host nation? No
• FIFA ranking: 7 (as of April 1, 2026)
• Form: Unbeaten since Mar. 2025

But don’t forget about chance

The concrete variables listed above may be influential, but they are only part of Klement’s equation. The influence of luck is also a pivotal factor in his prediction model.

Indeed, the element of chance accounts for as much as “45% of the outcome” in a World Cup, the German says. “It just turns out that I seem to have been lucky three times in a row - and, hopefully, at least when it comes to my neighbors in the Netherlands, a fourth time in a couple of weeks’ time,” he told CNN.

Chance, Klement says, is a particularly weighty variable in closely-matched contests such as his projected final. In the 2026 title decider on July 19, the economist predicts, the Dutch will face Portugal at MetLife Stadium.

“There’s very little qualitative difference between those two teams,” Klement told CNN. “They’re both excellent. So even a little bit of a lucky day for the Netherlands tips it in favor of the Netherlands. A lucky day in favor of Portugal would tip it in favor of Portugal.”

What do the bookmakers and prediction markets say about the Netherlands’ prospects?

Drawn in Group F - alongside Japan, Sweden and Tunisia - the Netherlands are chasing their first ever world title, having been beaten finalists on three occasions.

The Oranje negotiated their World Cup qualifying without losing, and are currently a run of 10 games without defeat - a streak that stretches back to a Nations League penalty shootout defeat to Spain in March 2025.

But despite the Netherlands’ ongoing unbeaten sequence, and the backing of Klement’s prediction model, the betting odds more or less mirror the Dutch’s world ranking: they go to North America as the bookmakers’ eighth favorite, at the time of writing. The Netherlands’ odds of 25/1, per Oddschecker, put them behind:

• Spain (5/1)
• France (6/1)
• England (15/2)
• Brazil (17/2)
• Argentina (9/1)
• Portugal (12/1)
• Germany (16/1)

The Netherlands are also ranked eighth by speculators on the prediction market Polymarket, with - at the time of publish - a 3% chance of claiming their maiden global crown. France topped speculators’ expectations with an 18% probability of victory, just ahead of Spain on 17%.

The Netherlands’ World Cup Group F schedule:

• June 14, 4:00 p.m. ET: Netherlands vs Japan - AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
• June 20, 1:00 p.m. ET: Netherlands vs Sweden - NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
• June 25, 7:00 p.m. ET: Tunisia vs Netherlands, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO

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