Iran’s presence at the World Cup hosted by the United States, Mexico and Canada remains uncertain with just 100 days to go before the tournament, amid the military conflict involving the United States, Israel and several countries in the Persian Gulf. The Asian side has already secured qualification and is one of the 42 teams guaranteed a place. Iran has been drawn in Group G alongside Belgium, Egypt and New Zealand.

However, Iran’s participation in a World Cup staged partly on U.S. soil raises a number of questions. If it takes part, the team is scheduled to play two matches in Los Angeles and one in Seattle.

What will happen if Iran decides not to go to the World Cup?

According to FIFA regulations for the 2026 World Cup, specifically Article 6 under the heading “Withdrawal, match not played, abandoned match and replacement,” any national team that withdraws from the competition faces a significant financial penalty and the possibility of additional sporting sanctions.

Article 6.2 of the regulations states: “If a participating association withdraws from the FIFA World Cup 2026 no later than 30 days before the first match of the final competition, the FIFA Disciplinary Committee shall impose a minimum fine of €275,000.” If the withdrawal occurs within the final 30 days before the tournament begins, the penalties increase: “If a participating association withdraws within the 30 days preceding the first match of the final competition, the FIFA Disciplinary Committee shall impose a minimum fine of €550,000.”

Financial penalties would not be the only consequence for Iran in the event of a withdrawal. The regulations add: “Participating associations that withdraw at any stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026 shall be required to reimburse all funds received from FIFA for the preparation of their national team, as well as any competition-related contributions received from FIFA. If a participating association is not admitted to the FIFA World Cup 2026, is excluded, or withdraws after the competition has begun, the FIFA Disciplinary Committee may impose additional disciplinary measures, taking into account in particular the timing of the withdrawal or exclusion, the seriousness of the infringement that led to the inadmission or exclusion, possible mitigating factors and any other relevant circumstances.”

Those sanctions could also affect Iran’s participation in future tournaments. “These disciplinary sanctions may include the exclusion of the association concerned from a future FIFA competition or the replacement of that association by another. The FIFA Council or the relevant committee may decide, in particular, to replace that association with another.”

For now, Iran’s presence at the tournament remains uncertain. Iran’s ambassador to Spain, Reza Zabib, does not believe there will be any problem with participation and says the country has earned its place: “We will go to the World Cup. We have the right to be there. We have no problem.”

Who would replace Iran?

Eight Asian teams qualify for the World Cup. The nations that have already secured their spots are Saudi Arabia, Australia, Qatar, South Korea, Uzbekistan, Japan and Jordan, along with Iran.

If Iran ultimately does not take part, the replacement would almost certainly come from the same confederation.

Iraq is the Asian team currently in Intercontinental Playoff B, which offers an additional spot at the World Cup. On March 31 in Monterrey, Mexico, Iraq will face the winner of the Bolivia vs. Suriname matchup in a single-game playoff for a place in this summer’s tournament.

Logically, if Iraq fails to qualify through that route, it would be the most likely candidate to replace Iran, as it is the AFC team that progressed furthest in qualifying without securing a berth.

Another potential candidate would be the United Arab Emirates, which lost to Iraq in the final stage of the Asian playoffs.

The most recent precedent for something similar came during the last Club World Cup, when Mexico’s León was excluded because it shared ownership with Pachuca. The vacant spot was decided in a playoff between Los Angeles FC and Club América, with the MLS side emerging victorious.

Another possible scenario would open up if Iran’s withdrawal occurred before the intercontinental playoff. In that case Iraq could be moved directly into the World Cup, while the UAE might take Iraq’s place in the playoff. However, the time frame for such a solution would be extremely tight.

At present, Iran’s participation in the first 48-team World Cup remains uncertain. And for Iranian fans, traveling to support their team could be extremely difficult. Entry into the United States has already been banned for visitors from Iran for the World Cup, after the country was included among the 19 nations affected by the travel restrictions announced by the Trump administration in June.

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