Coronavirus: mid-June end to USA deaths from Covid-19 predicted

Analysis by the IHME in Washington shows when countries and regions can expect their first day without a new death caused by the virus to come.

Coronavirus: ¿qué pasará el 8 de junio en España?
Víctor Lerena EFE

A study published by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington USA, predicts that 8 June will be a key date on the Spanish calendar. This will be the day, they say, where the country will experience no new deaths related to the coronavirus currently wreaking havoc.

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Dates of no Covid-19 deaths predicted

This analysis and predictions have been carried out with data obtained from the World Health Organisation (WHO), local and state governments, and based on government statements on social distancing measures and other advice.

This research does not stop there. It predicts that Covid-19 will have taken 19,209 lives in Spain by the time we reach that 8 June milestone. Overall, the study forecasts that Spain will have the third highest number of deaths across Europe from the disease, behind Italy, with 20,300 deaths, and well behind the 66,314 deaths in the United Kingdom.

Arlington county Fire Department paramedic Ben Bieber (R) and Brian Holmes unload a patient with respiratory issues from an ambulance at a hospital in Arlington, Virginia on April 9, 2020.

The prediction puts the total number of lives lost on the continent at 151,680, in what is being described as the ‘first wave’ of the pandemic, with many now accepting that once the various lockdown measures are lifted, it is possible that further cases will emerge. Meanwhile, in the United States - the country with the highest number of infections in the world and currently with the second most deaths - it is estimated that this wave will kill a total of 81,766 people.

The majority of the regions in Spain, as well as many across Europe, have already reached or passed the expected peaks of infection cases. The study consider several territories and also breaks some countries down into regional predictions.

Forecasting ’0’ Covid-19 deaths

Using the study here is a selection of areas and their predicted first day without any new deaths due to coronavirus:

Spain - 8 June (Madrid - 21 April)

UK - 2 June

USA - 14 June (New York - 6 May)

Italy - 19 May

Germany - 2 June

France - 8 May

Check out the rest of the data for other countries and regions here.

An important factor to note with any predictions like this is that they are based on the advice from governments being followed. If this is not done, or if an unexpected event occurs, then obviously there figures would be amended to reflect the change.