2022 Midterm Elections: Will the January 6 hearings influence voters in November?

The January 6 committee operation has been grinding on since the summer. Millions of documents have been analysed and thousands of people interviewed as it seeks to find out what really happened durng the January 6 riot. The upcoming midterm elections will decide whether the committee can ever complete its mission however, but it doesn’t seem to be a pressing issue for voters, nor the parties themselves.

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In one example, less than 2% of all broadcast TV spending in House races has gone toward Jan. 6 adverts, according to ad-tracking firm AdImpact. While this could suggest a lack of importance of the committee in the midterms, it should also be noted that political strategy to convince opposition voters doesn’t usually include telling them that they believe in destroying democracy.

An Economist/YouGov poll conducted in June found that 78% of Democrats, but only 15% of Republicans and 37% of independents, believe the committee’s investigation is “legitimate”. The voting lines have already been drawn; Democrats support it and Republicans hate it. Both sides believe the other to be a threat to Democracy; can the divide be healed in a deeply partisan America?

What do Democrats think about the hearings?

A good way to measure how Democrats feel about the January 6 hearings is how they relate to democratic security, that is “Is Democracy safe?” Fortunately, a number of polling outlets have already conducted some studies into assessing its importance for voters in the upcoming elections.

A New York Times/Siena College poll from mid-October suggested that an “overwhelming” number of voters believe American democracy is under threat. 71% of all voters said democracy was at risk, Democrats and Republicans, though only 7% believed it to be the most important problem facing the country.

This highlights what is proving to be the most important factor fore the midterms; the economy. Historic high inflation and fuel prices are driving up prices for everyone. Speaking in counterfactuals, it is likely the committee and threats to democracy would be a more important issue if there wasn’t a looming threat of being unable to pay to get to work or put food on the table.

Do Republicans believe the hearings to be important?

For Republicans, the January 6 committee has been a long-standing bugbear. Despite it being nominally bipartisan, the Republicans on the committee do not represent the beliefs of the majority of others in their party. This is echoed in the beliefs of Republican voters too. According to the same New York Times/Siena College poll mentioned earlier, 71% of Republicans could at least somewhat vote for someone who rejected the 2020 election results.

This shows the depth of feeling against missions like the Jan. 6 committee; after all its remit is “to strengthen the security and resilience of the United States and American democratic institutions” amongst other things. If Republican voters reject the 2020 election, then there is no point in believing in the point of the Jan. 6 committee. CBS News polling suggests that Republicans believe the economy to be of much greater concern in comparison to a functioning democracy.

Indeed, Republican lawmakers have said one of the first things they will do if they retake the House is close down the committee, rendering it powerless.

“This is their Christmas, January 6th,” said Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, “[The Democrats] are going to take this and milk this for anything they could to try to be able to smear anyone who ever supported Donald Trump.”

Polling from Reuters/Ipsos back in June actually suggested that more than half of Republicans believed the Capitol riot was conducted by left-wing protesters instead of the right-wingers who really started it. Nearly all of the 840 people arrested after the attack are confirmed Trump supporters.