Bad news for retailers: Black Friday shoppers are planning to spend less money in 2025
New data shows that a number of factors, including the use of smarter digital tools, could have an impact.
Black Friday is back (now, more than just a day, of course), so surely retailers are getting excited at the mass exodus of products and huge rush of cash flying into their cash registers. Well, maybe not.
Deloitte’s 40th annual Holiday Retail Survey paints a challenging picture for retailers hoping for a rebound after two uneven shopping seasons. Rising prices, lingering uncertainty, and a shift in how younger consumers make decisions are setting the tone for what could be a more modest spending period.
Why is Black Friday spending dropping?
Surveyed shoppers expect to shell out an average of $622 across the Black Friday–Cyber Monday stretch, a four percent drop from last year. It mirrors a broader decline in seasonal spending projections as consumers trim non-essential extras and focus on traditions rather than splurges. More than three-quarters expect higher prices, and over half believe the economy is heading for a downturn, pushing value into the spotlight.
Deals matter – but value matters more
The hunt for bargains is shaping almost every decision. Seven in ten consumers say they’re actively adjusting their shopping behavior to save money, whether that means switching to lower-priced retailers, maximizing loyalty rewards, or even hand-making gifts. The message for retailers: discounts alone won’t cut it.
Convenience, trust, and perceived quality now sit alongside price in the decision-making formula, and brands that personalize the entire journey stand to gain.
How is AI influencing shopping behavior?
A third of shoppers plan to use generative AI to navigate Black Friday deals, more than double last year’s figure.
Younger generations are driving this shift, using AI to compare prices, scan reviews, and build gift lists in seconds. Retailers that integrate these tools directly into their platforms may be best positioned to capture cautious shoppers who still want efficiency and tailored options.
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