Bad news for your pocket, this is how the Iran-Israel conflict is affecting oil prices in the U.S.

It has been nearly a week since Israel launched a major strike on Iran’s nuclear sites, as well as its military leadership and top scientists, and tensions show no sign of easing. Following Iran’s responses, the two countries have entered a cycle of escalating retaliation, with neither military backing down.

President Donald Trump has yet to clarify what role he envisions for the U.S., but on Tuesday, he stated that, for now, the military would not take the extreme step of assisting Iran’s head of state, 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Still, the president’s comments suggest that regime change remains on the table—an option being openly championed by Israeli political and military leaders across mainstream news outlets.

Where does the U.S. public stand?

Recent polls conducted by YouGov and The Economist found that 41 percent of U.S. voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the situation with Iran. Just over a third said they approved, while a little more than 20 percent reported no opinion.

When asked whether the U.S. should get involved in the military conflict between Iran and Israel, 60 percent of respondents said no—an opinion shared by majorities across Democrats, Republicans, and independents.

Across all political affiliations, over 50 percent of respondents said they supported the U.S. negotiating with Iran to encourage limits on its nuclear program. Only 18 percent supported using the threat of military force to achieve that goal, while a quarter favored using the reestablishment of diplomatic relations with the U.S. as leverage in negotiations.

How the war between Israel and Iran could impact oil prices

Oil prices have already risen, as investors worry that a broader conflict—including attacks on oil and gas infrastructure—could further disrupt supply.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), which tracks the price of petroleum primarily sourced in the Lone Star State, has increased 8 percent over the past five days. However, it remains below the $80 per barrel mark recorded a year ago.

The importance of the Strait of Hormuz

Attacks on oil and gas production sites aren’t the only concern. Iran’s government has floated the idea of blocking shipping access through the Strait of Hormuz—a move that could delay oil shipments from the Persian Gulf and further constrain global supply.

On June 16, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) published a brief blog post outlining how the escalating conflict could affect energy markets and emphasizing the strategic importance of the Strait.

“The strait is deep enough and wide enough to handle the world’s largest crude oil tankers, and it is one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints,” the EIA explained.

The agency reported that in 2024, roughly a quarter of global oil consumption—about 20 million barrels per day—passed through the Strait. However, it also noted that disruptions there would likely have a limited impact on U.S. gasoline prices, since only a small portion of U.S. oil imports transit the Strait.

However, not all market analysts are in agreement with that theory. Rob Thummel, who works as a portfolio manager focused on energy investments at Tortoise Capital, told CNN that the Strait is“absolutely essential” to keeping prices stable, adding that disruptions to travel through could send petroleum prices above $100 a barrel. This figure would still be lower than the spike to $130 seen after the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 that upended energy markets. The EIA has yet to update its price forecasts since the war between Israel and Iran began. The most recent available indicates that the average for a gallon of gas in 2025 would be $3.10, which was not expected to change in 2026.

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