German military expert predicts Russia will attack Estonia before 2028 as Russian provocations continue
Carlo Masala has described how Russian aggression could turn into a NATO collapse.
As tension rises across the world, Russia continues with its push towards increasing levels of aggression to its neighbours.
Given this situation, experts have raised concerns about Russia’s plans regarding NATO’s collective defence commitment over Europe. Carlo Masala, a German military expert, has now suggested that Moscow may perceive divisions within the alliance as an opportunity to test its resolve.
In his book If Russia Wins: A Scenario, Masala envisions a Russian incursion into Estonia by 2028, exploiting potential disagreements among NATO members about invoking Article 5, which suggests that ‘an attack on one NATO nation is an attack on all of us’.
“The Russians are stepping up their game”
“The Russians are becoming more and more reckless in the way they test the deterrence of NATO and the ability to react by particular nations," he told Newsweek. “This has to do with driving a wedge between the Europeans and NATO. We have had these provocations for two years but what you see in the past few months is that the Russians are stepping up their game, with 19 drones into Poland and three fighter jets into Estonia. They are taking an even higher risk in their provocations.”
He argues that some countries might hesitate to confront Russia, a theory that could embolden Putin to do what he pleases with no consequences. This assessment aligns with recent provocations, such as Russian troops near Estonia’s border and aircraft entering Estonian airspace, which have heightened tensions and tested NATO’s resolve.
“If you believe in its deterrence, then you don’t fly with three fighter pilots into Estonian airspace,” Masala said on the matter. “You might do it with one, but not with three for 12 minutes.”
“I think this was a PR stunt by the Russians because if you really want to pose a threat to Estonia, you don’t let seven soldiers walk on the street in no formation as living targets. It’s not really a preparation for something which might be upcoming. This was a demonstration by the Russians as if to say, ‘we can do these things without having to fear any consequences.’”
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While a large-scale attack would likely prompt a unified NATO response, Masala contends that smaller provocations could lead to internal divisions, with some members advocating for immediate retaliation, others for negotiation, and some hoping for a swift resolution - a situation that would leave a vaccum for Russia to step into.
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