Historian talks about the collapse of civilization as happened in the Bronze Age: “A perfect storm”
In 2019, Cline witnessed the new international landscape that began to emerge and drew parallels with ancient history.
American historian Eric H. Cline argues that several modern factors are pushing us closer to a collapse of civilization similar to the one that occurred in the 12th century BC, which led to the disappearance of many ancient cultures.
In an interview with the newspaper El Confidencial, Cline, author of the book After 1177 BC: The Survival of Civilizations, warns that we are facing global challenges that, if left unresolved, could result in either the end or a complete transformation of civilization.
According to Cline, civilizations, much like living organisms, follow a life cycle of birth, youth, maturity, old age, and death. However, he emphasizes that this cycle does not necessarily entail the complete disappearance of human civilization but rather its potential transformation.
“The reality is that some civilizations collapse and others simply transform,” the historian and anthropologist explained to the newspaper.
In 2019, Cline observed emerging international challenges and noted striking parallels with the periods preceding the fall of the Roman Empire and Egyptian civilization. The COVID-19 pandemic, the onset of the Ukrainian War, and growing climate instability are among the factors that led him to predict profound global changes.
“Now it’s simply worse: everything seems to be moving faster and faster, and I truly believe that history could be about to repeat itself in terms of this collapse,” he told El Confidencial.
Medieval facts about the Middle Ages 🧙🏼♂️ pic.twitter.com/pqGRXNUmed
— UberFacts (@UberFacts) August 1, 2021
‘Maybe it’s time to invent something new'
Cline asserts that the events of 3,000 years ago are highly relevant to analyzing today’s world. In his latest work, he examines which ancient civilizations successfully adapted to wars, invasions, mass migrations, and the collapse of international trade—and which did not—leading to the demise of some cultures and the rise of others.
Despite the concerning outlook, Cline believes that studying past collapses can help us prepare and potentially avoid a similar fate through two key strategies: innovation and the maintenance of international trade.
As in the 12th century BC, those who adapted and innovated—such as the Phoenicians and Cypriots—managed to survive. Cline argues that modern societies must likewise adapt social and economic systems to respond to emerging structural changes, ensuring they can be replaced or restructured if they fail.
“This is the equivalent of tin in the ancient world: If we have supply chain problems getting computer chips that power everything from computers to cars to coffee makers, then maybe it’s time to invent something new,” Cline says.
The Cistercian monks invented a numbering system in the 13th century which allowed them to write any number from 1 to 9999 using a single symbol pic.twitter.com/O6KdD4XmSJ
— UberFacts (@UberFacts) October 23, 2022
Furthermore, he stresses the importance of building a robust and stable international trade network that can withstand disruptions. “In my view, the most significant difference between now and then is the globalized trade network. Can you imagine what would happen if it completely collapsed? We’ve already seen glimpses of this—like when a ship blocked the Suez Canal for six days, causing worldwide disruptions. If our globalized network fails, we’re in serious trouble,” Cline concludes.
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