How does a U.S. government shutdown affect Social Security payments?
As lawmakers race to beat a midnight deadline to avoid another government shutdown looming in the U.S., we take a look at what this would mean for Social Security.
U.S. lawmakers’ bid to avert a partial government shutdown stalled late on Thursday, as the clock ticks towards Friday’s midnight deadline.
Earlier on Thursday, it was announced that Senate Republicans and Democrats had struck an agreement on government spending through September 30, amid Democratic pushback against a bill providing funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).
The deal involves separating the DHS legislation from a bundle of six appropriations bills that have already passed the House of Representatives.
“Republicans and Democrats in Congress have come together to get the vast majority of the Government funded until September,” President Trump wrote on Truth Social, adding: “Hopefully, both Republicans and Democrats will give a very much needed Bipartisan ‘YES’ Vote.”
A “bad deal”
However, a major sticking point then emerged when Lindsey Graham, the Republican senator from South Carolina, branded the Senate accord a “bad deal”.
Graham has reportedly objected to the inclusion of a law that would repeal senators’ right to sue if their phone records are accessed without prior notice. “What senator wouldn’t want notification that they’re looking at your phone?” he said, per The Hill.
Senators left the upper chamber on Thursday without voting on the spending package; they are now due back in the Senate at 11:00 a.m. ET/8:00 a.m. PT on Friday.
Senate vibe check. Sen. Lindsey Graham just stormed into Leader Thune’s office.
— Mychael Schnell (@mychaelschnell) January 30, 2026
Graham doesn’t think the Senate votes tonight. And he said he has a hold.
“This is a bad deal,” Graham told us.
What happens to Social Security payments during a government shutdown?
Aside from DHS spending, Congress needs to approve funding legislation affecting a raft of other agencies, including the Social Security Administration (SSA).
However - as was the case during last fall’s 43-day shutdown - recipients of SSA benefits will continue to receive their monthly payments, regardless of what happens on Capitol Hill on Friday.
This is because the SSA’s benefits schemes - be it retirement, disability and survivor pay, or the Supplemental Security Income program - are paid for by what’s referred to as mandatory funding. In other words: they aren’t dependent on periodic appropriations by Congress.
In the package that’s currently with the Senate, funds earmarked for the SSA are for other purposes, such as reducing waiting times for appointments at the agency’s offices.
As is noted by Andy Markowitz and Deirdre Shesgreen, finance experts at the seniors’ association AARP: “[Benefits] have a dedicated, permanent funding source (primarily, the payroll taxes most of us pay on our work income) and are unaffected by the federal appropriations process.”
In its most recent shutdown contingency plan, the SSA made plain its commitment to uninterrupted benefits, pledging to “continue activities critical to [...] ensure accurate and timely payment“.
Why has Congress come to the brink of shutdown?
After this month’s killing of Renée Good and Alex Pretti by federal immigration agents in Minneapolis, Democratic senators have been unwilling to approve funding for the DHS, the government agency responsible for the U.S.’s border forces.
“The DHS bill is woefully inadequate to rein in the abuses of ICE [Immigration and Customs Enforcement],” the Democratic Senate minority leader, Chuck Schumer, said last weekend.
Under senators’ Thursday agreement, the DHS would get an interim funding extension, as lawmakers discuss spending legislation that includes reforms to federal immigration agents operations. “Republicans in Congress cannot allow this violent status quo to continue,” Schumer said on Thursday. “They must work with Democrats on legislation, real legislation, strong legislation to rein ICE in.”
Although Democrats are in the minority in the Senate - the chamber is split 53-47 - the support of some of the party’s senators is needed to pass legislation, as bills need the backing of at least 60 lawmakers.
Will House convene in time to avoid shutdown?
Aside from Graham’s objections, there is a further significant hurdle to avoiding a shutdown. Senators’ funding deal must also go back to the House for approval - a step which may not take place until next week.
On Thursday, House speaker Mike Johnson told USA Today that the “earliest floor action we could have is Monday”. “We may inevitably be in a short shutdown situation,” Johnson added. “But the House is going to do its job.”
NEW -> JOHNSON told @USATODAY's @KarissaWaddick at the "Melania" premiere that the "earliest floor action we could have is Monday" on the just-agreed-to minibus + DHS CR.
— Zach Schermele (@ZachSchermele) January 30, 2026
"We may inevitably be in a short shutdown situation," he said. "But the House is going to do its job." pic.twitter.com/uuj3sEEq1c
What are the odds of a new shutdown?
On the prediction markets, expectations that lawmakers will meet Friday’s shutdown deadline are low. As of 6:00 a.m. ET on Friday, speculators on Polymarket offered a 74% chance of a stoppage come Satuday. Kalshi, meanwhile, showed a 72.5% possibility.
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