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How President-elect Trump’s immigration plan could actually increase fentanyl smuggling into the U.S.
The Cato Institute, the libertarian think tank, is sending a warning: Further restrictions at the border fuel fentanyl smuggling by U.S. citizens at legal ports of entry

President-elect Donald Trump has announced that on Day 1, he will enact a slew of border policies to crack down on the entry of migrants and dangerous drugs. The president-elect and his incoming adminstration tie these two issues together, ignoring facts about the way that fentanyl is smuggled, which could lead to another surge in overdoses in the coming years.
Regarding the very real threat of fentanyl—which was the leading cause of death for people under 45 in the U.S.—the rhetoric from the GOP and some Democrats does not align with reality. The GOP often highlights how cartels have moved massive amounts of drugs into the U.S., allegedly enabled by President Biden’s immigration policy. However, data shows that the majority of fentanyl brought into the U.S. is smuggled by U.S. citizens through legal ports of entry. Surprising? The Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank that cannot be described as aligned with the Democratic Party, noted in 2022: “Fentanyl smuggling is ultimately funded by U.S. consumers who pay for illicit opioids, nearly 99 percent of whom are U.S. citizens.”
In 2021, U.S. citizens represented “86.3 percent of convicted fentanyl drug traffickers,” a figure the Cato Institute describes as “ten times greater than convictions of illegal immigrants for the same offense.” Regarding where fentanyl is seized, it is not along migratory paths. “Over 90 percent of fentanyl seizures occur at legal crossing points or interior vehicle checkpoints, not on illegal migration routes, so U.S. citizens (who are subject to less scrutiny when crossing legally) are the best smugglers,” reports the research organization.
The impact of border closures led to a surge in fentanyl smuggling
Moreover, in 2021, less than one percent—0.02 percent—of migrants stopped by Customs and Border Protection (CBP) were in possession of fentanyl.
The Cato Institute also notes that in 2020 and 2021, the federal government made smugglers' work easier “by banning most legal cross-border traffic.” The closure of ports of entry is one policy touted by Donald Trump and one he plans to reimplement. However, researchers at Cato detail how the closure of these ports made it harder to smuggle other drugs, leading many to turn to fentanyl because it “is at least 50 times more potent per pound than heroin and other drugs,” meaning smugglers “need fewer trips to supply the same market.”
Data from Customs and Border Protection provides further insight. Between 2018 and 2020, before the pandemic gave the Trump administration the pretext to restrict immigration, “about a third of fentanyl and heroin seizures at southwest ports of entry were fentanyl, with no clear upward trend.” By January 2022, and thanks to actions by the Biden adminstration to maintain the policies enacted by Trump, smugglers had changed their tactics, and 90 percent of heroin-fentanyl seizures at ports of entry were fentanyl.
A more recent think piece from the Cato Institute warned that if the goal is to reduce the flow of fentanyl into the country, adding more Border Patrol agents to track down migrants is not a viable solution. Of the millions of encounters between CBP agents and migrants, only about 1 in 12,000 are found to be smuggling fentanyl. David J. Bier, the director of immigration studies at Cato, writes that if leaders are serious about decreasing deaths from this dangerous drug, they will not focus their efforts on “eliminating immigration.”
The consequences of an enforcement-only approach to immigration
While the Republican Party ran on a platform centered around closing down the U.S. border, this policy has had deadly consequences, says Bier. The new smuggling routes that emerged when legal ports of entry were closed contributed to a 56 percent increase in fentanyl overdose deaths in 2020, and the trend did not stop there. In 2021, overdose deaths surged by an additional 22 percent.
Bier called attention to a study conducted by University of Cincinnati professor Ben Feldmeyer, who found that “more immigration is more often associated with less drug overdoses.” These findings challenge the anti-immigrant rhetoric echoing from halls of power and cable news. According to Feldmeyer, the reduction in overdoses stems from the fact that immigrants “are more likely to abstain from drug use,” and their presence can improve the economies of the areas they inhabit, reducing drug use linked to poor economic conditions and despair.
It is critical to note that while this dynamic may reduce overdose rates, immigrants—particularly undocumented ones—are often exploited. Their vulnerable status can be leveraged by employers, affecting both child and adult workers alike. This exploitation, which often results in wages paid to undocumented migrants being lower than the minimum wage, which benefits businesses and suppresses the wages of American workers
What can be done
The tough-on-drugs consensus in Washington is unlikely to embrace the recommendations made by Bier and other public health experts aiming to reduce overdose deaths. Enforcement is an easy sell to the American public, particularly when migrants can be scapegoated for bringing in drugs. However, these policies ultimately benefit cartels while the public suffers.
Instead, Bier encourages leaders to facilitate access to test strips that can let users know if their drugs are laced with fentanyl. One of the most devastating aspects of the fentanyl crisis is that other drugs, like cocaine, are increasingly laced, leading to overdoses by people who did not think they were exposing themselves to fentanyl.
Additionally, expanding access to methadone treatment and creating supervised injection sites, as advocated by the National Harm Reduction Coalition, offers another way to address addiction.
These sites provide a clean and safe setting for injections while connecting users with professionals who can offer treatment options. Such programs also limit the isolation that often accompanies addiction, which could be the first step in helping individuals seek the support needed to stop using the drug.
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