Intelligence predicts major attack before US presidential election

Israeli intelligence has warned of an imminent attack by Iran through pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, potentially occurring in the coming days before the U.S. presidential elections on November 5. According to reports from Axios and Reuters, Iran’s plan focuses on launching a “decisive and painful” attack against Israel, utilizing drones and ballistic missiles.

Tehran’s strategy aims to avoid direct confrontation by launching the attack from Iraqi soil, thereby limiting a direct response from Tel Aviv against strategic targets in Iran. Israeli sources anticipate that the attack could resemble the one carried out in April, when Iranian forces launched a similar offensive from Iraq. General Hossein Salami, commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, recently stated that Israel made “a grave mistake” with its latest incursions and warned that Iran’s response will be unexpected and forceful.

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This exchange of threats marks a turning point in the escalating tensions between the two countries. Israel openly acknowledged its offensive on October 25 against Iranian infrastructure in response to Iran’s recent attacks on its territory and against its allies in the region. This public admission of direct military actions against Iran reflects a hardening of Israel’s stance, blurring the boundaries that for decades have averted open confrontation between the two regional powers.

The context of this potential attack also underscores the increasing instability in the region following the war in Gaza and recent clashes in Lebanon with Hezbollah. The deaths of prominent Hezbollah and Hamas leaders have heightened hostilities, bringing Iran and Israel to a new level of rivalry that many analysts view as a potentially explosive threat.

Israel has responded to Iran’s maneuvers with growing confidence in its military capabilities. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israel now has “greater freedom of action in Iran than ever before” and warned that its military is prepared to intervene anywhere within the Islamic Republic. He further emphasized that Israel’s central goal is to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons at all costs, reinforcing Tel Aviv’s commitment to curtail Iranian influence in the region.

The situation remains highly volatile, with the coming days shaping up to be crucial in the trajectory of Israel-Iran tensions, right at a pivotal moment in international politics with US elections just around the corner.