Neither Wisconsin nor Arizona: the potential swing state for Democrats to regain control of the House of Representatives

The upcoming November 2026 elections could redefine the balance of power in the US government, with the potential to end Republican control in Washington and serve as a referendum on the second term of President Donald Trump.

In those contests, 33 Senate seats will be up for grabs, along with special elections in two states, while all 435 seats in the House of Representatives will go before voters.

The country is divided into 435 congressional districts — each home to roughly 760,000 residents — that elect representatives for two-year terms, meaning they are chosen both in midterm elections and during presidential cycles.

Republicans currently control the White House and hold narrow majorities in both chambers of Congress. Democrats need to flip only a handful of seats to shift the legislative balance — around four in the Senate and three in the House.

The House battlefield may hinge on Trump territory

Analysts agree that the fight for the House will be decided largely in districts where Trump maintains strong electoral influence, heightening the importance of competitive states such as Florida.

The possibility that Republicans could pursue a mid-decade redrawing of Florida’s congressional districts has raised alarms among Democrats, who see the state as pivotal to reclaiming control of the House. Redistricting typically occurs every 10 years following the census, but lawmakers could move sooner in an effort to widen the GOP’s advantage.

The proposal, backed by Governor Ron DeSantis, calls for revisiting district maps ahead of the 2026 legislative elections, partly in anticipation of a US Supreme Court ruling that could alter the rules governing how districts are drawn, particularly regarding minority representation.

Yet the strategy carries political risks. For decades, Florida’s electoral map has clustered Democratic voters in urban districts, enabling Republicans to dominate many suburban and rural areas. Shifting that balance in pursuit of additional seats could make some currently safe Republican districts more competitive.

It could also endanger seats long held by Democrats, including those represented by Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Darren Soto, Jared Moskowitz and Kathy Castor in the Tampa Bay region. The prospect of redrawing those strongholds has unsettled national Democratic leaders, who have already begun preparing a political and legal response to any partisan remapping effort.

Voting rights organizations have warned that any attempt to revise the maps could face court challenges, as Florida’s state constitution contains provisions barring partisan manipulation of district lines.

Get your game on! Whether you’re into NFL touchdowns, NBA buzzer-beaters, world-class soccer goals, or MLB home runs, our app has it all.

Dive into live coverage, expert insights, breaking news, exclusive videos, and more – plus, stay updated on the latest in current affairs and entertainment. Download now for all-access coverage, right at your fingertips – anytime, anywhere.