Revealed: why you have been reading the iPhone weather app wrong all this time
Rainfall percentage is one of the most frequently consulted and misinterpreted data sources, a professor has explained.
The probability of rain is one of the most frequently checked features on weather apps. Yet this percentage is often misunderstood. Some people believe that a 60% chance of rain means six out of ten experts predict it will rain, or that rain will fall on 60% of the city.
In reality, weather forecasting relies on a complex system known as the ensemble forecasting method. Geography and History teacher Santi Sabariego has created a video to explain how it works.
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♬ sonido original - Santi Sabariego
The method begins with an analysis of the current state of the atmosphere, which provides an initial prediction. Then, 50 slightly modified scenarios are generated for the same location and day, producing a total of 51 forecasts. For example, if rain occurs in 25 of these forecasts, the probability of rain is considered 50%. If it appears in all 51, the probability is 100%.
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“Meteorology isn’t an exact science. Even if it doesn’t rain, you can’t say the forecast was wrong, because it’s a probabilistic prediction. And if you don’t like that, then use another method,” Sabariego concludes.
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