Scientists investigate a possible tsunami in southern Spain: the key lies in the Alboran Sea

A geological fault beneath the Alboran Sea has once again drawn attention to the coast of Almería. Known as the Averroes Fault, this underwater structure could generate a regional tsunami if a major earthquake were to occur, according to a new scientific study. The research specifically identifies Balerma, in the municipality of El Ejido, as one of the Spanish locations that would experience the strongest impact from the energy generated by the simulated event.

The study, published in the scientific journal Pure and Applied Geophysics, examines what could happen if the fault were to trigger a magnitude 7 earthquake. An event of this scale could displace the seafloor and generate a tsunami capable of affecting various areas along the coasts of the Alboran Sea.

Concerning results

The Averroes Fault lies beneath the Mediterranean Sea and shifts northward at a rate of approximately 0.16 inches per year. Its activity over thousands of years has been studied, and various investigations describe it as a “seismogenic and tsunamigenic” structure, meaning it is capable of producing both earthquakes and tsunamis.

One of the study’s main findings is the uneven distribution of tsunami energy along the Spanish coast. The simulation identifies western Almería as the area that would receive the greatest concentration of energy, with Balerma standing out as one of the most heavily affected locations. This is due to the town’s position relative to the fault and the way the movement of water would propagate from the simulated epicenter.

The model projects maximum wave heights of up to 9.5 feet in certain areas. This does not necessarily mean that a wave nearly 10 feet high would reach Balerma’s beach directly, since the height and behavior of the water can change as it approaches the shoreline. However, the scenario does highlight the potential for flooding in coastal areas, powerful currents, and damage to infrastructure located along the waterfront.

Balerma had previously appeared in other simulations involving the Averroes Fault. Some earlier scenarios estimated waves of up to nearly 20 feet for the area, with a response window of only nine minutes, compared with the 21 minutes calculated for Málaga. Despite these findings, the study does not suggest that there is any immediate danger to Balerma or the rest of the Almería coastline.

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