Sweden joins NATO: What is the future of the western military alliance in 2024?

After two years of diplomatic wrangling, Sweden is joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). There has been significant pushback from both Turkey and Hungary to the application, though their resolve has finally been broken after the Hungarian parliament voted to ratify Sweden’s application at the end of February.

“Having Sweden as a NATO Ally will make the United States and our Allies even safer,” a White House statement said.

It’s not the first time a NATO application has been held up by individual disputes. To join NATO, every existing member must vote in favour of the application, making the disagreement of just a single nation enough to block. The last time a nation joined the organisation was Macedonia was 2020, an application nearly a decade in the making as Greece refused to let their neighbour join due to a dispute over their northern neighbour’s name.

Now the organisation turns toward the future as it faces a crucial year; it has been two years since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, NATO has a summit in Washington marking the 75th anniversary of its creation, and a huge US presidential election which could result in a leader who has spoken against the US role in European security.

Why has Sweden applied to join NATO?

Sweden, historically neutral for over 200 years since the 1809 revolution, dramatically altered its stance in May 2022. This decision stemmed from a fundamental shift in the European security landscape following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Europe’s largest war since the 20th century pushed both Sweden and its neighbour Finland into NATO’s arms.

Prior to the war, public opinion in Sweden leaned against NATO membership with support around 37% a month before Russia’s invasion . As the conflict unfolded there was a huge reversal with around 64% wanting membership just six months later. Joining NATO offered a collective defense mechanism that Sweden felt was increasingly necessary.

All of Scandinavia now part of NATO: a new Mare Nostrum?

The entire region of Scandinavia: Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and Finland, are now under the umbrella of the NATO. The development prompts comparisons to ancient Rome’s concept of “Mare Nostrum,” or “Our Sea,” which referred to the Mediterranean as Rome’s domain. In his policy analysis of Sweden and Finland joining NATO, analyst Christopher S. Chivvis noted Swedish airbases are in an advantageous location while others have noted the importance of the Nordic nation’s union with NATO.

“The Baltic Sea is now basically a NATO Lake and that will be a source of worry to the Russians,” says a former senior editor of The Economist and Eastern Europe expert Edward Lucas.

Others disagree, however. Sweden and Finland’s joining of the alliance does greatly enhance the NATO presence in the region, but the existence of the Russian exclave of Kalilingrad still poses a strategic issue for the alliance. This small sliver of land that was once an integral part of the German Empire is now a highly-militarised Russian sector, the home of the Russian Baltic naval fleet.

“I hesitate to use the phrase NATO Lake because I do believe that the region in the Alliance needs to stay very vigilant,” said Catherine Sendak, the Director of the Transatlantic Defense and Security program at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). “[Kaliningrad] is their connection to the Baltic Sea and to the Atlantic and is extraordinarily important to Russia. It keeps their fingers in that region.”

All routes around the sea are now blocked, but the Russian toe-hold cannot be discounted. Kaliningrad’s significant rearmament in the last three years makes it a location of great interest for NATO’s wargames’ strategists.

Why was Hungary the last country to agree with Sweden joining NATO?

While Sweden’s application for NATO membership has garnered widespread support, one nation remained a hurdle: Hungary. Unlike its neighbors, Hungary delayed ratifying Sweden’s accession for over 21 months, becoming the last holdout in the alliance. This delay, attributed to a mix of political calculations and domestic concerns, exposed underlying tensions within the European security landscape.

Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, known for his nationalist and pro-Russia stance, publicly cited criticism of Hungary’s democratic record by Swedish politicians as a reason for the delay. Orban’s spokesman Zoltan Kovacs accused officials in Sweden of sitting on a “crumbling throne of moral superiority” last year. In terms of the Russian war with Ukraine, Hungary introduced exceptions to EU sanctions aimed at breaking the Russian economy, which grew 3.5% over 2023.

A visit from Swedish Prime Minister Kristersson last week seems to have smoothed over issues. “We do not agree on everything, but we do agree that we should work more actively together when we have a common ground,” Kristersson said.

Edward Lucas believes it was the strength of the European Union which ultimately brought Hungary to the negotiating table.

“In the end, Orban back down. He delayed for a bit and that was bad but Hungary cannot stand up to a united EU,” Lucas said. “There are no bilateral issues between Sweden and Hungary. He was inventing them.”

A critical year ahead for the military alliance

2024 promises to be a pivotal year for NATO as the alliance celebrates its 75th anniversary. The second anniversary of the Ukraine war has just passed amidst renewed Russian attack. and the organisation’s latest military exercises, dubbed ‘Steadfast Defender’ for the first half of 2024. More than 90,000 troops will be deployed from the Arctic to the alliances “Eastern flank,” as per the press release. These two events provide a platform for NATO but there are myriad issues affecting the alliance and the power it wants to project.

It is no secret that western support for Ukraine is beginning to wilt. NATO and other allies were initally quick to pledge weapons and funding to the eastern European country, but this resolve has been more difficult to find in recent months. In the US, politicians have been wrangling with each other over a funding package, totalling $60 billion, that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says is needed within the month. The EU only just passed its own funding package, with predictably large resistance from Hungary, but Ukraine is still much weaker than Russia. This has been evidenced by the retreat from important defensive positions in recent weeks as well as the reshuffling of the army command. Ukraine is in no place to push the Russian forces out of its territory.

The upcoming US election has the potential to entrench opposition against NATO’s assistance for Ukraine. In all likelihood, former president Donald Trump will be incumbent Joe Biden’s opponent come November. Polling suggests Trump has a good chance of defeating his rival, which may be a worry for NATO members. The Republican has made no secret his desire for members of the alliance to meet their stated target of a minimum of 2% of defence spending, though only eleven members currently pay that amount.

In response to the nations not meeting their spending obligations, Trump said, “You’re delinquent?’... No I would not protect you, in fact I would encourage [Russia] to do whatever they want. You gotta pay.”

Jens Stoltenberg, the chief of NATO, described the comments as “undermining all of [NATO’s] security.” Should Trump win in November then the alliance’s largest military contributor could be a spot of worry.

Surrounding all of this is the NATO summit, set to be held in Washington for its 75th anniversary. Analysts argue that the meeting, with what will be a record attendance, provides the perfect setting to for the alliance to address these issues. The meeting “needs to be substantive, forward looking, and newsworthy,” says Catherine Sendak. “There have to be things in the agenda that are not just internally NATO focused.”

It’s clear from the scale of the organisation’s challenges this year that the summit is an important milestone for aligning its members aims. Despite being the strongest it has ever been, continued conflict in Europe has exposed plenty of cracks in the alliance’s wall.