The price of one of the world’s most basic products plummets: “There is little buying interest”

Cocoa prices have slipped below $3,950 per ton for the first time since November 2023, according to data from Trading Economics. The commodity is now trading around $3,380 per ton, extending a downward trend after several years of sharp volatility.

The decline comes amid a noticeable slowdown in global buying activity. Weak demand is leading to a buildup of stockpiles among major producers—especially Ivory Coast and Ghana, which together account for more than half of the world’s cocoa supply.

Adding to the pressure, financial services firm StoneX is forecasting a global surplus of roughly 316,000 tons in the 2026 growing season and 294,000 tons in 2027. Farmers in West Africa report healthy soil moisture and expect upcoming rains to strengthen crops and support the production of higher‑quality beans.

What it means for the food industry

For food and beverage manufacturers, cheaper cocoa is both a relief and a new source of uncertainty. A prolonged period of lower prices could ease margin pressures after years of historically high costs that forced many brands to reformulate recipes, shrink package sizes, or raise prices.

Still, the outlook remains complicated. Farmer confidence is shaky, bean quality issues persist, and long‑standing structural challenges in West Africa’s supply chain make a stable recovery far from guaranteed.

Any delays in the harvest or problems related to storage could trigger another round of volatility. As a result, companies across the sector are doubling down on long‑term contracts, stronger supplier relationships, and investments in more resilient supply chains over the next 12 to 18 months.

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