SSA will announce the 2026 COLA in October, with a 2.7% forecast. Inflation after September affects the 2027 COLA, not next year’s.
This is the new 2026 Social Security COLA estimate: Will it be higher or lower than last year’s?
Social Security beneficiaries will be informed of their annual Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) for 2026 in mid-October. The Social Security Administration (SSA) uses consumer price data—specifically, the Consumer Price Index for Wage and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) to calculate the COLA. As tariffs begin to push prices up, these increases could be reflected in the 2026 COLA. However, any inflation seen beyond September will not be factored into the benefit adjustment in 2026; instead, it will be reflected (should it still be present) in the 2027 COLA.
How is the COLA calculated?
The SSA compares the average CPI-W for July, August, and September of the current year to the same period in the previous year. The percentage difference determines the COLA, which is applied to Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments starting in January of the following year.
As inflation slowed in 2024, the COLA for 2025 was 2.5 percent, significantly lower than the 3.2 percent adjustment in 2024 and the substantial 8.7 percent increase in 2023.
Where does the 2026 COLA forecast currently stand?
The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) publishes a monthly forecast for the COLA following the release of the CPI-W report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This week, TSCL updated its forecast following the release of the July CPI report from the BLS.
The current model projects a 2.7 percent COLA for 2026, suggesting the organization anticipates further price increases in August and September. This updated estimate reflects a rise in the expected benefits compared to earlier forecasts issued this year.
Related stories
Get your game on! Whether you’re into NFL touchdowns, NBA buzzer-beaters, world-class soccer goals, or MLB home runs, our app has it all.
Dive into live coverage, expert insights, breaking news, exclusive videos, and more – plus, stay updated on the latest in current affairs and entertainment. Download now for all-access coverage, right at your fingertips – anytime, anywhere.