Who did top polling guru Nate Silver predict to win the US presidential election?

Nate Silver shot to fame in 2008 when he predicted the outcome of the presidential election, crunching the data and successfully calling 49 out of 50 states, with Obama winning. He did it again in 2012, correctly predicting all 50 states. As MSNBC TV’s Rachel Maddow said at the time: “You know who won the election tonight? Nate Silver”.

So who does Nate Silver predict is going to win 2024′s Presidential Election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump? “Donald Trump”, is the answer, but take that with a lot of caution because he admits that is his “gut” feel. “But I don’t think you should put any value whatsoever on anyone’s gut — including mine.”

On crunching the actual numbers rather than gut feel, it’s just too tight as far as he sees it. The “only responsible forecast” he said, in an essay back at the end of October in the New York Times, is a 50-50 toss up.

“You should resign yourself to the fact that a 50-50 forecast really does mean 50-50,” said the famous pollster. “And you should be open to the possibility that those forecasts are wrong, and that could be the case equally in the direction of Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris.”

Silver’s final call on the 2024 election

On his Silver Bulletin substack, Silver posted his final update at half past midnight this morning, saying that out of 80,000 simulations his model had run, Kamala Harris won 40,012 times (50.015%) and Trump won 39,718 times (49.648%) with 270 simulations ending in a dead heat of 270 Electoral College ties. Where there is a tie, it is expected that Trump would win in the U.S. House of Representatives.

He’s now released his analysis of those numbers. If he were offered a bet on the election who would he pick? Simply put, he wouldn’t make a pick.

As Silver says: “And not because I don’t like gambling. But at the odds sportsbooks typically offer, you have to win 52.5 percent of the time to have a +EV bet. And Harris’s “lead” is smaller than that. I emphatically don’t think you should trust your “gut” when it comes to elections. I also don’t really believe in indicators like early voting or rumors of internal polls that people tend to overweight. But what if you offered me a free bet at 50/50? If I’m right, you buy me a nice sushi dinner. If I’m wrong, you razz me a bit?”

J. Ann Selzer poll calls Iowa for Harris

In other polling news, the biggest story of the past few days was top pollster J. Ann Selzer calling a Harris win in Iowa, 47% to 44%. Iowa is considered Republican and not one of the seven swing states that could go ether way.

Nate Silver said that news from Iowa, “probably won’t matter” in deciding the presidency but did say “I think Harris voters are reasonable in rejoicing over the Selzer survey.” In his opinion it means there are plenty of “high-quality pollsters” calling both a Harris and a Trump victory.