Science
Warning of impending volcanic eruption: “The world is not prepared”
Scientists have warned of the risk of a massive volcanic eruption that could cool the planet, disrupt weather patterns and trigger global crises.
Humanity could face a massive volcanic eruption this century, a phenomenon with a documented history of devastation. However, its consequences in today’s more populated and climate-affected world could be even more severe.
Scientists like Markus Stoffel, a climate professor at the University of Geneva, warns that it’s not a question of if it will happen, but when. Geological data suggests there’s a one-in-six chance of this event occurring in the coming decades.
The most notable precedent is Mount Tambora, whose 1815 eruption triggered the largest recorded volcanic catastrophe. The impact wasn’t limited to local devastation in Indonesia; its global effect marked the so-called “year without a summer.”
Temperatures dropped, crops failed, and a cholera pandemic spread as the world faced famines and social tensions. Even cultural events like Mary Shelley’s creation of Frankenstein are attributed to the extreme climatic conditions of that period.
The current danger lies in the fact that a similar eruption would occur in a much hotter and more densely populated world. According to Stoffel, an explosion of such magnitude would eject sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, creating particles that reflect sunlight and cool the planet for several years. While this effect might seem like a temporary relief from global warming, experts point out that the consequences would be devastating.
Climate and social impact
A global cooling of just one degree Celsius, like that caused by Tambora, could destabilise weather patterns, dry up monsoons in Africa and Asia, and reduce agricultural productivity.
Studies on past eruptions, such as Mount Pinatubo in 1991, have already shown how these particles affect global temperatures. Even more alarming is the possibility that climate change could intensify these effects, increasing the dispersion of aerosols that exacerbate cooling.
In addition to the climate impact, the social repercussions would be enormous. More than 800 million people live near active volcanoes, raising the risk of direct human and economic losses. In the long term, the effect on food security, the global economy, and political stability could be catastrophic.
A world unprepared: predictions impossible
Scientists point out that despite lessons from the past, the world still lacks clear plans to deal with a massive eruption. “It’s crucial to develop strategies that include evacuations, relief efforts, and food supply,” emphasizes Stoffel. However, current preparedness is scarce, and extreme scenario simulations are just beginning to develop.
Meanwhile, regions like Indonesia and Yellowstone in the United States, both with high volcanic activity, remain under expert surveillance. But specific predictions about when and where the next major eruption will occur remain impossible.
With a world increasingly vulnerable to natural disasters, the message from scientists is clear: the time to prepare is now because when the moment comes, the consequences could surpass anything we’ve known.
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