What are the forecasts for the hurricane season in the USA this summer?
Though no named hurricanes have hit US shores in August, September looks to be a month of hurricane activity according to weather monitors.
August has been an unnatrually safe month for hurricanes. With only a handful of days remaining, 2022 could have no hurricanes in the month, a feat only managed on two other occasions on record: 1961 and 1997. The last named storm was back on July 3.
However, the folks over at AccuWeather, weather prediction specialists, say it is more than likely September will see as little action. With as many as 17 more named storms by the end of November. This includes eight hurricanes.
Related story
What is preventing the formation of hurricanes is a thing called ‘wind shear’. This is when strong breezes prevent the accummulation of moisture in the atmosphere, a necessity for tropical storms and hurricanes. However, these shears could be on their way out as soon as next week.
“As long as wind shear remains strong, that system is unlikely to develop. But, if wind shear drops off later next week, it is possible for a system to organize over the northwestern Caribbean and then track into the Gulf of Mexico and strengthen,” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
Projections published earlier in August by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University suggest that there is a 60 percent chance of an above-normal number of named storms this year.
When are the hurricanes forecast?
Accuweather says there is a chance of a tropical storm crashing into US shores for Labor Day weekend, September 5. It encourages people on the Gulf Coast as well as people working in the water around it to monitor developments in the weather.
“It is possible the impacts of that system, should it hold together, could reach the islands in the northeastern Caribbean during Wednesday or Thursday,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said.
A broad area of low pressure could form a tropical system, though a number of events are necessary for it to become a danger to life.
With the peak of the season expected to be September 10, expect the storms to come thick and fast once they begin.