What chance does the same-sex marriage bill have of being passed in the Senate?

The House passed the Respect of Marriage Act which would enshrine marriage equality in federal law and now it must be taken up by the Senate.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has said he is working to see if their are enough Republican votes to bring the bill to the floor. After the overturning of Roe v. Wade, many. are calling into question the safety of constitutional rights if this court was willing to overturn a half-centuary of judicial precedent.

So far there are only three Republicans, Susan Collins (R-ME), Lisa Murkowski (R-AL) Rob Portman (R-OH) that have said that why would vote for the legislation. North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis has said that he is likely to vote for the bill if it comes to the floor, but has not confirmed his final decision.

One surprising aspect of the House vote on the marriage equality bill was that all four Congresspeople from Utah voted YES. This opens the door to Senators Mike Lee and Mitt Romney voting yes, but so far, they have not made their position clear. Sen. Romney has said that he supports gay marriage as well as the decision by the Supreme Court to make it the law of the land. However, when asked by reporters after the House vote, he said “the law isn’t changing and there’s no indication that it will.” For that reason, he had not really taken the legislation under consideration --leaving space for him to come over the to the YES camp.

Without five or six additional votes, depending on where Sen. Thom Tillis ends up, the bill cannot become law.

Where does each Republican Senator stand on the issue?

Here we compile the latest remarks made by GOP Senators to on their position. The vast majority have either not stated their position publically or not been asked by the media.

No Votes

Bill Cassidy - Louisiana

Like Rubio, Senator Bill Cassidy has cast the choice by Democrats to bring the Respect of Marriage Act to a vote as a political stunt aimed to deflect from “real issues.”

Lindsey Graham - South Carolina

Graham told POLITICO “Nope, I won’t vote for the bill,” when asked his position.

Josh Hawley- Missouri

Sen. Hawley told Raw Story he believes the decision should be returned to the states.

“The problem with Obergefell is that I don’t think there is any constitutional basis for the Supreme Court to say ‘this is what the definition of marriage is according to the Constitution. I don’t think the Constitution has marriage in it [...] And I think the states — traditionally that has been — because the definition of marriage, that has been a big controversy in this country all around the country. And the states have defined it one way or another and I think that that’s the right difference.

Josh Hawley (R-MO) to Raw Story

Marco Rubio - Florida

Rubio has said he believes that taking time to vote on the House bill represents a “stupid waste of time.” These comments have received backlash online as out of touch, insensitive, and plane offensive.

Roger Wicker - Mississippi

Which Senators are more likely to support marriage equality?

One of the top lines from GOP leaders in light of the passage of the Respect of Maraige Act in the House is that marriage equality is a none issue and Democrats are trying to deflect for issues like inflation.

Mike Braun - Indiana

Ealier this year, Sen. Braun was widely critizied for comments which implied that he thought the legalization of inter ractioal marriage should be up to individual states. When asked of whether he was comfortable leaving the quesetion of interracial marriage to the states, he said “Yes, I think that is something that if you are not wanting the Supreme Court to weigh in on issues like that you are not going to be able to have your cake and eat it too. I think its hypocritical.”

“When it comes to issues you can’t have it both ways. When you want that diversity to shine, within our federal system, there are going to be rules and proceedings that are going to be out of sink with maybe what other states would do. Its the beauty of the system and thats where the difference among points of view in our fifty states ought to express themselves. And I am not saying that that rule would apply in general, depending on the topic, but should it mostly be in general because it is hard to have it on issues that you just are interested in, when you deny it for others with a different point of view.”

Mike Braun, Senator (R-IN)

Later, the Senator said that he had misunderstood the line of questioning. However, he has not made his position on marriage equality clear and based on these comments does not appear to be a reliable vote.

Joni Ernst - Iowa

Many people have poked fun at Sen. Ernst’s reponse to the question as she mearly pivoted away from it to say that she has “a good number of close [gay] friends.”

Chuck Grassley - Iowa

Mitch McConnell - Kentucky

The Senate Majority Leader said that he would wait for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer to bring the bill to a vote before making up his mind. Some have said that while McConnell may not want to vote to approve the bill himself, he would like to see it passed to eliminate the issue that divides his caucus.

Shelley Moore Capito - West Virginia

Mike Rounds - South Dakota

John Thune - South Dakota

Tommy Tuberville - Alabama

No Statements

• John Barrasso - Wyoming
• Marsha Blackburn - Tennessee
• Roy Blunt - Missouri
• John Boozman - Arkansas
• Richard Burr - North Carolina
• John Cornyn - Texas
• Deb Fischer - Nebraska
• Rick Scott - Florida
• Tom Cotton - ARKANSAS
• Kevin Cramer - North Dakota
• Mike Crapo - Idaho
• Ted Cruz - Texas
• Steve Daines - Montana
• Bill Hagerty - Tennessee
• John Hoeven - North Dakota
• Cindy Hyde-Smith - Mississippi
• Jim Inhofe - Oklahoma
• Ron Johnson - Wisconsin
• John Kennedy - Louisiana
• James Lankford - Oklahoma
• Mike Lee - Utah
• Cynthia Lummis - Wyoming
• Roger Marshall - Kansas
• Jerry Moran - Kansas
• Rand Paul - Kentucky
• Jim Risch - Idaho
• Ben Sasse - Nebraska
• Rick Scott - Florida
• Tim Scott - South Carolina
• Richard Shelby - Alabama
• Dan Sullivan - Alaska
• Pat Toomey - Pennsylvania
• Todd Young - Indiana