What was the last “big one” and when do experts expect the next catastrophic earthquake to hit?
Earthquakes rank among the deadliest natural disasters in the world, with many of them killing thousands. Experts warn the ‘Big One’ could come soon.
Earthquakes are deadly natural phenomena that have caused hundreds of thousands of deaths at a time in different parts of the world.
According to the U.S. Geological Survey, scientists have not been able to predict a major earthquake: they simply don’t know how. The best that experts can do is to calculate the probability that a significant earthquake will take place in a particular area, within a time frame that ranges in years.
Strong quakes can cause devastating damage, especially if they hit densely populated areas. Forbes says an earthquake that is referred to as “The Big One” has a magnitude of at least 7.8.
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What was the last “big one” and when do experts expect the next catastrophic earthquake to hit?
Going by this definition, the quake that hit Alaska in 2021 falls under this category. It had a magnitude of 8.2, but thankfully claimed no fatalities and caused no serious damage. The limited effects of the event were attributed to it taking place offshore from an area with a small population.
It’s a different matter when talking about urbanized areas which house a dense population. A scientific forecast issued 10 years ago indicated that there was an almost 50% chance that at least one earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.5 will strike California within the following 30 years.
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If the forecast holds true, a strong quake could rock the area within two decades.
Meanwhile, The Atlantic says that California is already overdue for a massive earthquake. The San Andreas Fault’s section that falls near Los Angeles has not caused a devastating quake for more than three centuries.
As scientists expect fearsome earthquakes in the area to take place every 150 to 200 years, it appears that The Big One has taken its time in coming, and could occur without warning at any time.