When does the 2026 hurricane season start in the United States? Here’s what experts are predicting for this year’s storms

The 2026 Pacific hurricane season has already begun, while the Atlantic season is just around the corner. According to recent predictions, the El Niño weather phenomenon could play an important role in shaping both hurricane seasons.

Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center say El Niño is expected to arrive “soon.”

Based on the latest updates, there is an 82% chance it will develop within the next two to three months, a period that overlaps with both hurricane seasons.

NOAA explains that El Niño tends to increase hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins, while suppressing storm activity in the Atlantic basin.

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a natural climate pattern caused by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator. It develops every few years and can significantly alter weather patterns around the world. In the United States, El Niño often leads to wetter conditions across parts of the South and warmer winters in the North. It also tends to suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic by increasing wind shear, which makes it harder for storms to form and strengthen, while boosting cyclone activity in the Pacific.

When does the 2026 hurricane season begin in the United States?

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Pacific hurricane season runs every year from May 15 through November 30. In the Atlantic, the season begins on June 1 and ends on November 30.

What the Pacific hurricane season typically looks like

Historically, an average eastern Pacific hurricane season produces 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, meaning Category 3, 4, or 5 storms on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale.

The first named storm usually forms between early and mid-June. The first hurricane generally develops by late June, while the first major hurricane tends to form around mid-July.

What the Atlantic hurricane season typically looks like

Historical data shows that an average Atlantic hurricane season includes 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

The first named storm typically forms between mid and late June, while the first hurricane usually develops between early and mid-August. The first major hurricane generally forms in late August or early September.

Forecasts for the 2026 hurricane season

Alex DaSilva, lead hurricane expert at AccuWeather, said that while El Niño could reduce the total number of storms, it will not eliminate the Atlantic hurricane season.

AccuWeather is forecasting between 11 and 16 named storms, including four to seven hurricanes and two to four major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher. Meteorologists are also predicting between three and five direct impacts on the United States during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.

Despite expectations for fewer storms overall, DaSilva warned that rapid intensification remains a major concern, something that occurred repeatedly over the past two years because of unusually warm ocean waters.

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