When will the Supreme Court release the official ruling on Roe V Wade?

It has now been a week since a leaked Supreme Court draft opinion detailing the overruling of Roe v. Wade was made public. The uncertainty brought upon by this unprecedented event has left many anxiously awaiting the court’s final decision, expected sometime in June.

The case being heard by the Supreme Court is not specifically Roe v. Wade but rather a Mississippi law challenging the the legal precedent granting the right to abortion: Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization. The bill, passed in 2018, would make it illegal to receive an abortion after fifteen weeks of pregnancy. The provisions in the Roe v. Wade decision give a timeline around two months longer than what would be become the law in Mississippi.

Lawyers have brought the case to the Supreme Court, challenging its constitutionality as it directly conflicts with the legal precedent set by Roe v. Wade and Casey v. Planned Parenthood. Thanks to the three Trump-appointed judges, the court has the votes to overturn these legal precedents.

While the bill does include some exceptions, for a medical emergency or “a severe fetal abnormality,” pregnancies that result from either rape or incest are not included, even in cases involving children. Abortion providers could have their medical licenses revoked or suspended in cases where they have been found to have provided the procedure.

When could the final opinion be released?

Based on the Supreme Court’s unique schedule, a final decision can be expected in May or June. Most believe that June is more likely, especially given the backlash from the draft opinion.

However, the closeness to which the leak became public leaves many to worry that it could be a close to final draft as a decision could be released at any moment. A decision must be made before June because the month marks the end of the court’s session until the fall.

What would be the impact if Roe v. Wade is overturned?

Immediately, if the cases are overturned, the bodily autonomy of half the population will be subject to dramatic inequalities across the states. Thirteen states have passed “trigger laws,” meaning that if Roe were overruled, these states would immediately prohibit or severely limit access to abortion.

Depending on the state, the trigger law would prohibit abortion in the first or second term of pregnancy.