POLITICS
Who won the Iowa caucus? Who came in second place in the Republican race?
It wasn’t even close and that suggests that we are going to be in for a bumpy ride as Donald Trump drives home his own brand of politics in coming months.
In a decisive victory, former President Donald Trump emerged triumphant in the Iowa caucus, setting the tone for the 2024 election season. The results not only solidified Trump’s support base but also raised questions about the future trajectories of his Republican rivals, Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley.
Donald Trump destroys rivals in Iowa
Surveys conducted revealed that Trump was the frontrunner from the beginning, with a commanding 64% deciding to support him well before this month. Late-stage campaigning by DeSantis and Haley proved to be almost pointless against the overwhelming support for Trump, as shown by entrance polls conducted by Edison Research.
Trump strategically dominated the rural state, capitalizing on his popularity among the white, working-class population. Edison’s numbers reflected this dominance, with Trump winning 73% of voters who never attended college and 54% of those aged 45 and over. He secured the majority among self-identified very conservative and somewhat conservative voters, as well as a plurality of independent voters.
Evangelicals back Trump over DeSantis
Trump’s success extended to key issues, capturing 61% of Republicans prioritizing immigration and 52% of those concerned about the economy. Particularly noteworthy was the support from caucus-goers who doubted the legitimacy of President Joe Biden’s election, with 69% backing Trump. Astonishingly, 63% of surveyed Republicans believed Trump would be fit to be president even if convicted of the pending criminal charges related to the 2020 election.
While Trump’s campaign never took Iowa for granted, it strategically approached the caucuses as a significant but not necessarily must-win event. His late-stage efforts, including a single rally during the final weekend, paid off handsomely.
Looks like Donald Trump just won Iowa. He’s the clear front-runner on the other side at this point. But here’s the thing: this election was always going to be you and me vs. extreme MAGA Republicans.
However, the lack of a knockout blow meant that DeSantis and Haley were not inclined to drop out before the upcoming New Hampshire primary on 23 January. Despite his strategic focus on Iowa’s Christian conservative voting bloc, DeSantis fell far short, with Trump securing more than twice the support among the state’s evangelical voters.
Haley appealing to more educated Republicans
DeSantis’ attempt to replicate Ted Cruz’s 2016 strategy fell flat, and he now faces the challenge of rebounding in subsequent primaries. Meanwhile, Haley, despite finishing third in Iowa, showed promise among moderate and highly educated Republican voters. Her focus on foreign policy resonated well with voters in Iowa, providing her with optimism as she heads to the New Hampshire primary.
Haley’s third-place finish, while disappointing given her significant campaign spending, positions her well for the upcoming primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina. With her strength among moderates, independents, and those prioritizing foreign policy, Haley remains a contender in the evolving landscape of the Republican primaries.
As the dust settles in Iowa, Trump stands tall, having secured a vital victory, while DeSantis and Haley recalibrate their strategies for the challenging path ahead in the 2024 Republican nomination race.