The 2026 Oscars predictions: what do the odds say about the favorites to win?

Award season is entering its final stretch, with the 2026 Oscars already on the horizon. As the ceremony approaches, there’s one indicator that many analysts follow closely: bookmakers’ odds and prediction markets. They aren’t infallible, but historically they’ve proven to be a fairly accurate barometer of the industry’s mood in the days leading up to the ceremony.

At this stage of the race, the predictions tend to reflect more than just speculation. The promotional campaigns are over, the Academy’s final voting has closed, and the trends throughout the season—from guild awards to critics’ awards and national film academy awards—have left a fairly clear trail. The result is a fairly clear picture of which films are the favorites and where doubts still linger.

The Race for Best Picture

In the top category—Best Picture—betting markets typically narrow the field down to a small group of films. This year seems to be no exception. The odds all point to two productions as the leading contenders for the award.

On one hand, there is ‘One Battle After Another,’ the film directed by Paul Thomas Anderson and starring Leonardo DiCaprio. For much of the season, it has earned major awards and maintained a consistent presence in critics’ and analysts’ predictions. That combination of critical acclaim and industry recognition is usually one of the most reliable indicators for predicting the Oscars’ final outcome.

At the other end of the spectrum is ‘Sinners’, Ryan Coogler’s film, which has entered awards season with significant industry buzz. The film has stood out particularly for its large number of nominations and the support it has received at various industry awards.

The Academy’s voting system also adds an element of uncertainty. The Oscar for Best Picture is decided by preferential voting, which means that the winner need not be the film with the most initial support, but rather the one capable of generating the broadest consensus among voters when ballots are redistributed. For this reason, even when there is a clear favorite, the category is rarely a foregone conclusion.

Direction and screenplay: more clearly defined categories

If we look at the betting odds, the picture becomes a bit clearer. The odds place Paul Thomas Anderson in a very strong position thanks to ‘One Battle After Another’. The filmmaker has been one of the most respected figures in contemporary cinema for decades, with a filmography celebrated by critics, and many analysts believe this could be the year he finally receives recognition from the Academy.

In the screenplay categories, there are also fairly clear trends. ‘Sinners’ appears as one of the favorites for Best Original Screenplay, while ‘One Battle After Another’ dominates the predictions for Best Adapted Screenplay. When two films lead the season, it’s not uncommon for the Academy to end up splitting the creative honors between them.

The Acting Categories

The acting categories present a somewhat more varied picture. In the Best Actress category, the odds show a fairly clear trend toward Jessie Buckley for her performance in ‘Hamnet’. The actress has been a constant presence throughout the awards season and is listed as the favorite in many prediction pools.

The race for Best Actor, on the other hand, seems much more wide open. For much of the season, Timothée Chalamet has emerged as one of the leading contenders for ‘Marty Supreme.’ However, Michael B. Jordan’s late surge for his role in ‘Sinners’ has reignited the competition and significantly narrowed the gap between the two.

In the Best Supporting Actor category, the odds are heavily in favor of Sean Penn for ‘One Battle After Another’, a performance that has been particularly well-received by critics and various industry awards.

The category generating the most uncertainty remains Best Supporting Actress. Over the past few months, several actresses have taken turns as favorites in the predictions, and the odds continue to show a relatively narrow margin between the leading contenders.

What the bookmakers usually get right

Although every Oscars ceremony brings a few surprises, bookmakers usually get a significant portion of the results right. This isn’t a coincidence: their odds are constantly adjusted based on thousands of bets and the tracking of trends throughout the awards season.

That’s why, by the time the ceremony week rolls around, the field of favorites is usually pretty clear. This year, the odds point to a night dominated by ‘One Battle After Another’ and ‘Sinners,’ with some categories heavily tilted toward a single contender and others where the suspense will remain until the envelopes are opened on stage on the afternoon of March 15.

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