Does the schedule favor the Yankees in their fight for the American League East division?

As the final third of the Major League Baseball season unfolds, the race to the postseason intensifies, like the rustling of dry leaves under the feet of a lone runner. In the American League East, the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees are locked in a fierce race. They are tied for the lead with an identical 67-46 record and hold off the Boston Red Sox by six and a half games.

The Yankees have emerged from a dark stretch, reminding us of the many stretches in such a long schedule. On Sunday, DJ LeMahieu delivered a walk-off hit that left the Toronto Blue Jays hanging, clinching New York’s first home series since early June against the Minnesota Twins. The Yankees, previously 0-6-1 in their last seven series, are now an impressive 4-1-1 in their previous six series overall.

Aaron Judge is putting together an MVP-worthy season, a beacon of hope for the organization’s coveted 28th title. His performance has been crucial in keeping the Yankees in the hunt for the division title the Orioles won last year.

Winning the division carries significant weight, as the first and second-place teams in each league advance directly to the first round of the playoffs, bypassing the torturous wild-card round. In the American League, these teams are almost sure to be the winners of the American League East and Central Divisions. Thus, the Yankees and Orioles are not only competing for the division title but also for the privilege of skipping the first round of the playoffs.

With the current tie for first place, examining the differences in both teams’ remaining schedules is paramount. Each has 49 games left to play, spread across 16 series, with seven days’ rest. The Orioles’ remaining opponents have an average winning percentage of .490, ranking them 23rd in MLB regarding schedule difficulty. In contrast, the Yankees’ remaining opponents have an average winning percentage of .477, ranking 27th in MLB. Only the Angels, A’s, and Tigers face easier schedules based on the opponent’s winning percentage.

Who are you going against in your next series?

After a day off on Monday, the Yankees embark on a crucial stretch in which they will play 18 of 21 games against teams with losing records. Nine of those games will be against the Angels, White Sox, and Rockies, three of the weakest teams in baseball. On the other hand, the Orioles will face 17 teams with winning records in 22 games during the same stretch.

Upcoming commitments

The Yankees have 27 games remaining against teams with losing records and nine against teams currently in playoff position. On the other hand, the Orioles have 20 games against teams below .500 and nine against teams in playoff position. Additionally, the Yankees will play 28 of their final 49 games at home, while the Orioles will play 22 of 49 games at home. Although both teams have performed better on the road this season, familiarity and home support often confer an advantage, like a constant whisper of encouragement in times of doubt.

With a schedule that appears to be tilting in their favor, the Yankees have a significant chance to clinch first place in the Eastern Division and avoid the wild-card round.

As the regular season nears its end, each game becomes a delicate balance between winning and losing, a dance on the razor’s edge in the thrilling race to the postseason.