Who are the candidates to enter the Baseball Hall of Fame in 2023?

The Baseball Hall of Fame is a means of remembering the past and honor the people who have shaped the sport through the years. The 2023 candidates offer a chance to look forward and try and escape most of the controversy that has surrounded the HoF for the past decade.

Bonds and Clemens are gone, A-Rod remains

The steroid debate is far from over as players who are affected by it still remain on the ballot and some others will still trickle onto it in the coming years. But the two biggest cases involving Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, have exhausted their ten years of eligibility without being elected and are therefore finally off the modern day ballot. Perhaps the best hitter and best pitcher in the history of the game, they will have to wait to be voted in by players in a few years as their chance to be enshrined by the media did not work out.

Bonds and Clemens were close to the 75% threshold in their final year, but steroid and personal character concerns have kept them out of the Hall, and it seems like that same fate is shared by past superstars Alex Rodríguez and Manny Ramírez. They are in their 2nd and 7th year of eligibility, and perhaps it’s not too late for A-Rod to turn it around and have his media presence be enough to make voters forget or forgive his mistakes. It seems unlikely though, as A-Rod is one of the best infielders of all time but neither Bonds’ 762 HR or Clemens’ 7 Cy Young Awards were enough to make BBWAA voters make them part of the hall.

The returning candidates who have a chance

The truth is that it is very difficult to think anyone will get elected into the Hall of Fame in 2023, but some candidates can make some progress towards getting elected down the road. The only player who reached 60% of the votes in 2022 and is still on the ballot next year (so no Ortiz, Bonds, Clemens or Schilling) is Scott Rolen, who surged to 63% of the vote but is still only on the 6th year of his decade of eligibility, so voters are not in a rush to elect him yet. The former Phillies third baseman has the numbers to get into the hall with a bWAR over 70 and 2000 hits in his career, but the 47-year-old was no clear cut superstar so even if some votes are freed given these year’s departures, BBWAA members may not immediately turn to Rolen.

Billy Wagner, 8th year, and Todd Helton, 5th year, also crossed the 50% vote barrier, but the bias against relievers and Colorado Rockies players make it even more difficult to see them being inducted soon. A-Rod will probably get some more votes this year, but he will reach the same ceiling Bonds and Clemens did sooner or later, even if BBWAA members change a bit over his eligibility and become more lenient towards steroid-users.

The new players on the ballot: Beltrán, Rodríguez…

There is no first year Hall of Famer in this year’s new eligible players, no one will replicate what David Ortiz did last year, as he reached 77.9% of the votes in his first try, but there are some candidates who have a legitimate case to get their own plaque in a few years.

Francisco Rodríguez is the top pitcher in the class, but is also is a reliever, so his chances on the ballot are tied to whatever happens with Billy Wagner. K-Rod has a 24.1 bWAR with 1142 strikeouts in 976 innings, as well as some crucial showings to help the Angels win the 2002 World Series during his rookie season. Wagner has 27.7 bWAR, 1196 SO in 903 innings and one more All-Star appearance than the Venezuelan pitcher, so if he does not get elected, the precedent would really complicate Rodríguez chances to get in the HoF.

Carlos Beltrán is the other big name that will get added to the next ballot. He has over 400 home runs and he breaks the 70 WAR barrier as a centerfielder, so his numbers warrant strong consideration, but he is tainted by a different concern: pitch stealing. Beltrán was part of the 2017 Astros and was signaled as one of the brains behind the “banging scheme” that they used to recognize pitches during their WS win season. It is hard to know how much the pitch stealing will matter to voters, so his first year will mark whether he is within reach of the HoF or his chances are too hurt by this.

The other names in the ballot, such as John Lackey or Matt Cain, figure out to be candidates that will fight to get the 5% of votes needed to remain on the ballot for another year.