World Series within reach as the Seattle Mariners go 2–0 up in ALCS
Since 1996, no team that won its first two road games has lost the Championship Series.
There’s no sweeter sound in Seattle than a silent stadium—especially when it’s on foreign turf. The Mariners left Canada with two thunderous wins and a sense of destiny on their side. With the American League Championship Series now 2–0 in their favor, they’re just two victories away from reaching a World Series that’s eluded them since their founding in 1977.
History is on Seattle’s side
The numbers don’t lie. In 93 best-of-seven postseason series, teams that took a 2–0 lead went on to win 78 times—that’s an 83.9% success rate. When those first two wins come on the road, like Seattle’s did, the odds jump to 88.9%. In baseball, probability tends to prevail.
Mariners dominate in Toronto
Seattle didn’t just win—they steamrolled. Monday’s 10–3 blowout was a statement, stunning the Blue Jays and reigniting hope in a city that’s grown used to waiting. Jorge Polanco was once again the emotional compass, Julio Rodríguez delivered clutch hits, and Cal Raleigh continued to embody the grit of a team that’s risen from obscurity.
All this came after a grueling series against Detroit that stretched 15 innings and pushed Seattle’s rotation to the brink. Toronto, by contrast, came in fresh after dispatching the Yankees in four games. But that rest turned into rust. In just two nights, the Blue Jays’ offense vanished.
| Historical situation | Series played | Times the 2-0 leader advanced | Success rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Teams with a 2-0 lead (all 7-game series) | 93 | 78 | 83.9% |
| Teams with a 2-0 lead winning the first two away games (2-3-2 format) | 27 | 24 | 88.9% |
| Last team to overturn a 0-2 deficit | Arizona D-backs (2023, vs Phillies) | — | — |
| Last team to overturn a 0-2 deficit after losing both at home | Yankees (1996, vs Braves) | — | — |
Guerrero Jr. goes cold
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has become the face of Toronto’s struggles. He’s hitless in seven at-bats during the ALCS, a stark contrast to his explosive performance in the Division Series. His swing has reverted to the form that ended the regular season with a .167 average over his final 54 plate appearances. He’s adjusted his grip—not the results.
“I’ll always be optimistic about this team,” said manager John Schneider. But history has a long memory. The last team to come back from a 0–2 deficit was Arizona in 2023 against Philadelphia. The last to do it after dropping the first two at home? The Yankees in 1996 against Atlanta. The timeline isn’t on Toronto’s side.
Seattle’s momentum builds
Seattle isn’t celebrating just yet, but the energy is unmistakable. With three straight games coming up at T-Mobile Park, the city is buzzing. For decades, the World Series felt like a distant dream. Now, it’s right in front of them—just two wins away—with history pushing from behind.
Pitching matchups announced
- Game 3 (Wednesday, 8:07 PM EST): George Kirby will take the mound for Seattle. He previously started Games 1 and 5 against Detroit, allowing just three runs over 10 innings with 14 strikeouts and one walk.
- Game 4: Luis Castillo is set to start for the Mariners. He pitched six scoreless innings in relief during Game 5 of the Division Series, giving up just one hit.
- Game 3 for Toronto: Shane Bieber will start, but the Blue Jays have yet to announce their Game 4 pitcher.
Seattle’s story is unfolding fast—and if the numbers hold, it might just end in a long-awaited trip to the Fall Classic.
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