Could LeBron James reach the 45,000 point mark in his career?

Last year, when LeBron James became king of the NBA scoring hill, speculation was that he could top 40,000 points in his career. It seemed far off at the time, but fast forward to now and that number is soon to sit in LeBron’s wake.

So just how far could he possibly go? Could the great King James actually top 45,000 points?

There are several scenarios at play here and we need to consider them all. First is that LeBron is 39 years old. He has been especially adept at holding back the incursions of Father Time, but eventually, as it does to us all, Time will catch him.

Over his career, James has averaged over 30 points per game, and while he doesn’t play as many games as he used to, often under 70 per season and these days more like 50, that could still see him trickle forward to around 41,000 points, assuming that he has a couple of years left in the tank.

If he manages to hang around for another four years, he could conceivably make it to 46,000 points. But that is not a realistic outcome.

The fact is that Time catches up with us slowly rather than all at once. His 30 points per game average will likely slip to 25, then 20, then maybe even less. And those 50 games per season? Expect that do dribble it’s way down to 40, then 30 and even lower.

A more realistic scenario is that LeBron will hang around longer than he should do in the NBA, staying relevant for another season or two, and then becoming a footnote. He will almost certainly top 41k, perhaps even 42k, before levelling out. Should that happen, and he continues for another four seasons, James will finish with something in the 43-44k range.

That is still an incredible feat, and who knows? King James has proven us all wrong before, and he could just do it again.

Reaching Kareem’s record, one that had stood for over four decades, seemed possible but unlikely. And LeBron did it. Reaching 45,000 career points is possible but unlikely. And he just might do it.