Luka Doncic vs the Boston army: how the Mavericks can fight back in Game 3 against the Celtics

Only five teams in NBA history have come back from a 2-0 deficit in the Finals. One of those was the 2016 Cavaliers, where Kyrie Irving (now with the Mavericks) was LeBron James’s sidekick, much as he is today for Luka Doncic. Another was the 2021 Bucks, where Jrue Holiday (now with the Celtics) played a crucial role with his defensive prowess and game intelligence, complementing Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Herculean efforts. It has been done, albeit rarely.

The Mavericks have a glimmer of hope, which could virtually vanish on Wednesday night if they fail to win their first game in Dallas and find themselves down 3-0, a deficit that has never been overturned in any stage of the playoffs, let alone in a Finals series. The most remarkable comeback we have witnessed connects back to 2016, when the Cavs overturned a 3-1 deficit against the Warriors, who were not only defending champions but also boasted the best regular-season record in history (73 wins, 9 losses).

Here’s a reminder of that magical night for the Cleveland franchise.

Celtics target more history

The 2024 Boston Celtics are also on the verge of making history. If they win two of their next five games, they will become just the ninth team to win 14 playoff series while losing no more than two. The previous eight all went on to win the NBA title. With 78 wins (78-20), they could reach 80 if they clinch the championship, making it the third-best record in their history after their legendary teams of 1986 and 2008.

They are currently on a nine-game winning streak, the longest in franchise playoff history, having won every game since the Cavaliers tied their Eastern Conference semifinal series at 1-1. A third win would not only virtually seal the Finals but also make them the tenth team to string together ten consecutive playoff victories.

Mavericks fail to capitalise on Celtics drop

The Mavericks are clinging to their home advantage. They also take solace in the fact that they closed the gap in the second game, after being vastly outplayed in the series opener. However, the second game didn’t bring entirely good news for Dallas. They lost a game they should have won, buoyed by a statistical anomaly in the Celtics’ shooting percentages. Boston, despite creating good opportunities, shot a dismal 10/39 from three-point range, converting only four by late in the third quarter – a 25% efficiency, their worst of the season and well below the NBA average of 36%.

This subpar performance from beyond the arc presented a golden opportunity for the Mavericks against a team that is virtually unbeatable when shooting over 32% from three (69-8 this season when surpassing that mark, 8-12 when they don’t).

Where the Celtics dominate the Mavericks: everywhere

The Mavericks have been outmatched in almost every aspect in the first two games. The qualities that carried them to the Finals, overcoming three series without home-court advantage against teams with over 50 wins in a tough Western Conference, have been easily neutralised by a deeper, more talented Celtics team without the exploitable weaknesses of their previous opponents. All key Celtics players can shoot threes and will take the shot whenever available, forcing the Mavericks’ defence to cover everyone and preventing them from loading the paint. Moreover, the Celtics have no defensive weak links for Doncic and Irving to exploit through constant pick-and-rolls.

Constant pressure from playmakers Tatum, Brown, Holiday and White can spread the floor, allowing them to shoot effectively from any spot, and creating space to drive to the basket. They are also excellent passers who pressure defences with relentless penetration. This presents a significant problem for a Mavericks backcourt, where Doncic and Irving (who is now 32 and needs to conserve energy for offence) are not defensively robust. Doncic is playing through multiple injuries (knee, ankle, and now a chest contusion), making it difficult for two offence-oriented players who need rest and thus are prone to mistakes.

This constant pressure, coupled with proficient shooters, forces the Mavericks to vacate the paint. Against the Thunder and Wolves, leaving certain players unguarded allowed Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II to receive constant help from PJ Washington and Derrick Jones Jr., effectively limiting points near the basket. However, the first two Finals games have been among the worst for perimeter containment by any team in the 2024 playoffs: the Celtics easily broke through the initial defensive line, creating open three-point opportunities or highly efficient scoring chances near the rim (15/15 in the first game, 20/27 in the second).

The Tatum dilemma

The Mavericks aim to limit Tatum’s scoring efficiency. They have somewhat succeeded, holding him to 17 points per game on 12/38 shooting and 4/14 from three. But this has allowed the Boston man to excel as a playmaker. When he drives into the paint, he has clear passing lanes to teammates who are often in good positions under the basket, exploiting the Mavericks’ weak interior defence. In the second game, Holiday’s ability to find open spots near the rim was crucial (11/14 shooting). Tatum, who averaged 9.1 drives per game during the season, increased to 11.4 in the Eastern playoffs, and has skyrocketed to 18 and 29 drives in the two Finals games in Boston. He has delivered 19 passes to the corners, resulting in 12 open shots for his teammates. Doncic, who typically excels in this aspect, has only managed five corner passes, with just one leading to a shot.

This has seen Tatum provide 16 assists (an equal 8 per game) in the Finals, complemented by Jaylen Brown’s nine. In their mature and balanced form, the Celtics’ two stars don’t need to perform heroics or score massively. They just need to integrate into the team’s collective flow, find the open man, move, and conserve energy for defence and rebounding.

Five Celtics players average between 21.5 points (Jaylen Brown) and 16 (Kristaps Porzingis). The other three are Holiday (19), Tatum (17), and White (16.5). This formidable lineup contrasts sharply with the Mavs’ reliance on Doncic, who averages 31.5 points, with no teammate close behind. Kyrie Irving is averaging 14 points on 35% shooting with no three-pointers made. The Celtics’ offence has consistently penetrated the Mavericks’ stronghold, and their defence has suffocated Dallas, who have averaged just 93.5 points over the two games in Boston.

Boston’s defence and Mavs’ struggles

In the first game, the Mavericks recorded just 9 assists and 7 were three-pointers, figures the Celtics had reached by the end of the first quarter alone. Doncic, unusually, had no assists. He is facing defenders who can hold their own against him one-on-one. In the first game, there were no open shooters created by Doncic’s typically sharp reading of double teams. In the second, the Celtics again forced him and Kyrie into mid-range shots and one-on-one plays. There were no open corner threes or alley-oops from the pick-and-roll.

The advantages that made the Mavericks’ supporting cast effective have disappeared. Lively II, impressive in the Western playoffs, now looks like a rookie struggling to find his place. More worryingly, Washington and Jones Jr. have combined for just 2/13 from three (15%) in the Finals, compared to their 37.4% average (62/166) in the previous three series.

With Brown and Holiday as primary defenders and Tatum taking on the Mavericks’ stars after screens, Doncic and Kyrie find few opportunities and must fight for every point. Irving, so far a shadow of himself, is suffering greatly. Doncic is holding up but cannot do much more against this opponent. In the first game, he was isolated due to a lack of connection with his teammates, and in the second, because they failed to capitalise on his passes.

The physical and mental toll is evident. Doncic’s distributed went as follows across his 31 points in the second game: 13 on 5/7 shooting in the first quarter; 10 on 4/6 in the second; 6 on 2/2 in the third, and 3 on 1/6 in the fourth. He added 11 assists but also had eight turnovers. The Celtics have the size, bodies, and discipline to either switch constantly or adapt with Porzingis.

What can Mavs do to beat Celtics in Game 3?

It’s uncertain what Jason Kidd will do next. Given the lack of interior presence, with Maxi Kleber out of sorts, he might use Washington as a small-ball centre. Or, desperate as it sounds, he might bring Tim Hardaway Jr. back into the rotation, even though adding another poor defender is the last thing the Mavericks need. When such options are considered, it’s clear things are dire.

Before throwing all their cards on the table, Kidd might give it one last try without drastically altering his plan. He could hope that playing in Dallas changes the physical dynamics, reengages Kyrie, and sharpens the role players. Anything short of these basics will lead to a 3-0 hole, effectively burying the Mavericks. And Doncic, physically worn and overwhelmed, finds himself in a battle where, for now, he cannot do any more against a relentless, exemplary Celtics team. It’s a formidable blend of physicality and talent that has exuded championship quality all season.